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The CSU and its president, Horst Seehofer, have not become easier. In assessing what should happen now, little has changed in their view. Especially since the Chancellor has laid an egg in the nest of the Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer in Brussels
Ironically, he and the other ministers of the interior of the EU must now negotiate the details of proposed by-laws. Horst Seehofer, head of the CSU, also described the results of the EU summit as having not the same effect as the refusal of refugees at the German border. It has also rejected the placement of asylum seekers already registered in other EU countries in centers of anchorage in Germany. In the agreed form, that would be unacceptable to him
So what can happen now?
Scenario 1: Seehofer postpones the decision to reject the refugees by himself at the border
before another escalation – this relaxation would be quite possible. In this case, Seehofer and the CSU could declare that their pressure has already caused dramatic changes in Berlin's policy. Yes, the Bavarians could explain, only they would have made the legs of the Chancellor
That would in any case have the advantage of the moderate forces of the CSU like Vice President Manfred Weber that they would be grateful to any the CDU, and that in the double sense. For many Christian Democrats, the need to act is still huge. At the same time, many in the CDU also breathe a sigh of relief because they find absurd the quarrels between the sisters, given the good situation in which lies Germany as a whole.
However, there are also in the CDU stubborn opponents to Merkel, who no longer recognize that the fall or the resignation of Chancellor a chance of real change.
Another advantage for the CSU would be that they come directly back to Austrian Chancellor Sebastian could briefly dock. Kurz said in two interviews after the summit that Austria would not take back the refugees from Germany, especially after they had entered German territory, and that the Vienna government was also against it. national unilateralism. Such words change the setting of the CSU's argument.
Specifically, the CSU says that it wants to give the summit announcements four or six weeks, but it will become the threat, alone and nationally never take the table off. For Angela Merkel, it would be a thing above all else: a new intermediate step, to save time and, until further notice, a slight reassurance of the situation.
Others, especially their most severe critics, would say: paralysis remains
Scenario 2: Seehofer opts for solo national effort – and Merkel throws him out
This would be the maximum climb with a completely open result. This would lead not only to the resignation of the Minister of the Interior, but probably also to the separation of the faction community. Almost inevitable consequence: the two parties would now assume the whole of Germany.
It is still not excluded that this may correspond to this situation – yet, in both parties, the majority of members seem to believe that staying together is more important than Merkel's future. and Seehofer
For this reason, something else could happen in such a case: both – Merkel and Seehofer – are forced to resign in their own ranks. To save the superordinate, so to speak, to avoid this, Angela Merkel could especially try something else before this scenario
Scenario 3: Seehofer and the CSU decide to go it alone – and Merkel reacts with the vote of confidence
At this moment, this course of events seems more likely than the abrupt break, and for one reason in particular: in this case, it would not be Merkel, who leaves Seehofer and therefore also the CSU. If Merkel in the Bundestag was a matter of confidence, it would be up to the CSU-deputies to say yes or no to the Chancellor.
If that's the way of the next few days, then it might be something like this: Seehofer announces Sunday night or Unilateral national refusals on Monday at the border – and Merkel gives up a direct response, but asks Wednesday or Thursday the question of trust.
In order not to keep this vote in general, they could combine that with a definition of their refugee policy. It would not put the 2015 processes to the vote, but would likely sell many points of the Seehofer plan as their own positions, with the addition that otherwise, what they achieved in Brussels, without national unilateralism. ..
One The question of trust has two central elements: recently, it has always been a roll call. This means that each member must clearly show their colors. So, it becomes clear who announces who here. In addition, the Chancellor may request the dissolution of Parliament in a defeat to the Federal President. But this is not necessary.
Few people think that it would really be an option for Merkel in case of defeat. Therefore, the question would be to withdraw or ask a group of most powerful Christian Democrats to do so.
Yet Sunday afternoon does not look like him. Two of the most important prime ministers and vice-presidents are clearly behind them: Hessian Prime Minister Volker Bouffier and his colleague Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia.
If there is a break, Merkel will have a second option in addition to the vote of confidence: a special CDU party convention. Just as Gerhard Schröder had done with his Agenda 2010.
For the Chancellor, it would not be an escape safely. A good result would strengthen it. At the moment, few people believe in such a result. They think that a close result is more likely. And?
Then the tedious front-end movements of the last few months could continue for many months. This is a variant that should be of interest to virtually none of the parties. (Tages-Anzeiger)
created: 01.07.2018, 16:59
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