Where does the federal government suddenly come to have so much money? – Switzerland: standard

Tuesday morning, the National Council opened the debate on the federal budget for 2019. The annual ritual takes place this year in unusual circumstances: for the first time in a long time, the Federal Council does not propose any measure of austerity in Parliament – neither among the farmers who have regularly fought for their budget these last years, nor in the cooperation for the development or the education. ,

The reason is trivial: the financial situation has improved so sharply in 2018. Even without any reduction, the Federal Council presents a draft budget at first sight daunting: the total expenditure of 72.3 billion francs Switzerland left a surplus of 1.3 billion. In Parliament, various ideas for increases are quickly proposed, particularly with regard to education and border guards.

Less big at second sight

At the same time, the surplus is not as impressive at second glance. Heretic, he should be a little higher. In addition, the joy could be short-lived. This is demonstrated by the sight of the two most important causes of unexpected happiness.

Rejected releases: The Swiss Confederation has already saved 1.3 billion francs simply because voters rejected two major reforms last year. We are talking about the reform of the old-age pension and the reform of the corporation tax III, which would have increased the federal budget. The joy of this relief, but only briefly, the salty bill should come just a year later. Meanwhile, the parliament passed the controversial tax reform of the AVS, which will strengthen the federal government from 2020. 1.4 billion Francs per year. Previously, however, the bill may have to survive the announced referendum.

Explosive property tax: For a long time, withholding has played a secondary role, but in the meantime it is almost 10% to the total budget. From 2003 to 2017, revenues from 1.3 to 8.2 billion The Franks got up. It was a new record. As a result, the federal government estimates that, for the next few years, from 700 to 900 million The Swiss franc corrected upwards. However, uncertainties remain high as withholding tax is notoriously difficult to predict. The federal government has already badly judged several times.

The cantons reserve money for the federal government

The fact that the withholding tax is so hot today is not just because many companies paid higher dividends. The tax reform implemented by President Donald Trump in the United States also makes an important contribution. This has the effect that the Swiss subsidiaries of US companies are able to generate profits that they have so far registered in Germany. In each case, a 5% tax for the federal government falls. However, this blessing is unique.

In addition, negative interest rates also contribute to high incomes. Businesses, individuals and even cantons are currently refusing to claim their tax credits immediately because they prefer to leave the money without interest to the federal government. Again, this effect is temporary, you have three years each time to recover the tax.

Good prospects – despite the marriage penalty

Conclusion: only through rejected reforms and withholding, the scope of the federal government for 2019 around 2 billion Franconia enlarged. In addition, higher taxes are usually due to the surprisingly good economic situation. Nevertheless, the fact that the surplus does not increase is due to the fact that overall expenditures increased by 1.3 billion up, most in the army and education.

Medium-term prospects are also relatively comfortable. If the tax reform of the AVS comes into force in 2020, the austerity measures by the hundreds of millions will be threatened again. But then it's better again. For the years 2021 and 2022, the Federal Council foresees surpluses that can reach 1 billion Franks – even though he's considering another controversial tax reform. The Federal Council wishes that 2021 removes the marriage penalty imposed by the federal tax, resulting in losses of about 1 billion That would cause francs. That Parliament and the people join, however, is uncertain.

A conflict with the EU could be expensive

Whatever the case may be, the situation remains calm for the moment. The federal government's tax policy will continue to focus on where to spend more. The recording is not announced. This could only change if the conflict with the EU around the Swiss stock exchange intensified. Brussels has still not decided to extend its end-of-year recognition. In case the situation worsens, the Federal Council has announced a reform that should strengthen the competitiveness of the Swiss financial center. The focus will probably be on tax relief by removing the sales tax and the emission tax. If the Federal Council is omnipresent, the Treasury loses about 1.6 billion francs a year. (Baz.ch/Newsnet)

Created: 27.11.2018, 13:13