Tax refunds are $ 11.5 billion less than our forecasts: UBS



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Spring tax refunds generally give the economy a boost as money comes in and people pay off their debts or spend. Economists and analysts therefore pay particular attention to the size of these unexpected gains.

Net Payments to Households Below Expectations of Economists According to New UBS Study, Shortfall of $ 11.5 Billion on Additional $ 20 Billion Expected by Economists vs. the previous year.

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "From & nbsp;latest IRS numbers, 27 million returns were processed and the average reimbursement amounted to US $ 1,949, a decrease of 8.7% compared to the previous year. "Data-reactid =" 17 "> According to the latest figures from the IRS, 27 million returns have been processed and the average refund is US $ 1,949, down 8.7% from last year.

It is still relatively early in the repayment season, but UBS noted that if this continues, it would have a "significant effect" on its first quarter forecast. Economists, "hesitantly", are maintaining their forecasts for the additional $ 20 billion paid to households compared to last year at the end of May.

Once again, UBS repeated its motto for the 2019 tax season: "No one – neither us, nor the other economists, nor the US government – knows if the repayments will be larger or smaller than those of previous years. "

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Many bank economists like UBS and Merrill Lynch are expected tax refunds are especially important, & nbsp;given the changes& nbsp; in the tax code. For example, Merrill Lynch expected repayments to be 26% higher this year. Many bank economists, such as UBS and Merrill Lynch, expected tax refunds to be particularly large, given changes to the tax code, for example, Merrill Lynch's Expected refunds to be 26% higher this year.

<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Unfortunately, the changes made to the restraint tables of the 39; IRS were not If withholding errors are an important factor leading to lower repayments, the changes made to state and local withholdings have caused many unpleasant surprises for families.However, the total number of taxes paid by families should be lower given the changes in the law, a point that Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) & nbsp;pointed out recently. "data-reactid =" 21 "> Unfortunately, the changes to the IRS's restraint tables were not aggressive enough and the repayments are declining.Although restraint errors are an important factor that leads to lower repayments, changes in national and local tax deductions Many unpleasant surprises for families, but the total number of taxes paid by families should be lower given the changes in the law, a point recently underlined by Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Ethan Wolff-Mann is a Yahoo Finance editor who focuses on consumer issues, personal finance, retail, airlines and more. Follow him on Twitter @ewolffmann."data-reactid =" 23 ">Ethan Wolff-Mann is a Yahoo Finance editor who focuses on consumer issues, personal finance, retail, airlines and more. Follow him on Twitter @ewolffmann.

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<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "New tax legislation and closure "mean the perfect tax storm""data-reactid =" 25 "> The new tax law and its judgment" mean the perfect tax storm "

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