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With its collection of big wins and lackluster overall record, Maryland continues to make life difficult for the bracket industry.
The Terps again refused to crumble and blend into the ether of souls tied to the NIT, beating Minnesota on Sunday night for a season sweep. The Golden Gophers have been terrible away from home and haven’t been playing well lately, but thanks to the fact that they’ve sort of knocked out Big Ten contenders in Michigan and Ohio State, beating them another score for the Terps.
After the win, ESPN.com’s Joe Lundari moved the Terps from his “second four strikeouts” to his “first place in his first four strikeouts,” meaning the Terps currently sit 69th for the 68-team field. If you’re looking for teams you can fight against, St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Colorado State and Stanford are his last four.
John Gasaway, ESPN numbers guru wrote:
Considering Maryland entered the game 10-10, 4-9 in the Big Ten, Sunday’s 72-59 victory over Minnesota at College Park was about as close to a “must have” as the games. in mid-February. The Terrapins landed on many “first four out” and even “next four out” lists ahead of the odds. Now, with a season sweep over the Golden Gophers as well as wins over Illinois, Wisconsin and Purdue, Mark Turgeon’s men have a legitimate chance to find their way into the fork. Looking ahead, the Terps will face a quick turnaround as well as a golden opportunity to raise their record to 13-10. Nebraska comes to the Xfinity Center to play a two-game series on consecutive days. Turgeon’s offense prefers a deliberate pace, thank you, with plenty of tries beyond the arc.
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Jerry Palm of CBSSports has Maryland third in the First Four Our, behind Boise State and North Carolina, the latter of which is 21 places behind the Terps in the NET rankings. Obviously, Maryland has the analysis on the pitch, but Palm and Lunardi predict the committee will find their record disqualifying unless they cover it up in the remaining six games. He wrote:
Minnesota suffered another loss of route, this time at Maryland. This has given the Terrapins a seasonal sweep from the Gophers, which can be helpful if they get a good enough record to get into the range. I think the committee would have to swallow very hard to take a .500 team. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team or two come in this season with overall records that wouldn’t normally be good enough due to the shortened schedules.
The Terps (11-10 overall, 5-9 Big Ten) moved Maryland from 38th to 36th in the NCAA NET rankings, ahead of a long list of schools Lundardi projected to be on the teams in the Big Ten. Indiana and Minnesota. They rank 35th on KenPom, a ranking that places a team comfortably on the court.
What does all this mean? First off, they have to sweep Nebraska in those back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday. The wins won’t carry much weight, but they will make their record better, and a loss to the Cornhuskers (5-12 overall, 1-9 Big Ten) would lower their entire standings. A sweep would put them at 7-9 in the Big Ten game with four deuces – against Rutgers, Michigan State, Northwestern and Penn State – a situation in which 3-1 would win them a 10-10 Big Ten record and almost make them. come in, and 2-2 would apparently give them a good chance.
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A more widely used site, barttorvik.com, gives them a 30.6 chance of being successful in the field, up from around 13% earlier this month.
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