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Jonas, Morgan Stanley, crunching the numbers on Tesla (TSLA -1.3%) to estimate that there will be 860K of company vehicles (S / X / 3) on the roads globally by the end of 2019. Forecasts assume a cumulative total fleet 879K units delivered and a tear rate of 2%.
Jonas adds that while extra cars on the road are a form of free advertising, the impact on the residual values of Tesla vehicles and the financial impact on Tesla and / or its customer base are unclear at this point .
What is clear to Jonas is that production in China and Model Y are the foundation for Tesla's demand, with up to 25 percent of Tesla's expected volume coming from China by 2024.
"We believe that Tesla is announcing itself as a game increasingly focused on Chinese demand in 2020 … a story that could involve an increased risk of execution given the state of trade relations between the United States and China.We believe that over time, investors will not pay much multiple on the profits earned by the American car makers Chinese, "he wrote.
Morgan Stanley has an equal weight rating on Tesla and a price target of $ 230.
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