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At a party after the Democratic presidential debate in Houston on Thursday, the Texas Democrats marveled at the new status of their state as a "battleground".
There has been little effort to hide their pride in their native sons, Julián Castro and Beto O'Rourke, who compete with top contenders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, for Democratic presidential election.
An animated analysis after the debate took place in Spanish, English and English, their conversations stretched under the pulse of Baila Esta Cumbia of Selena and Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello singing Señorita. There were women in cowboy boots and men in bolo ties. As if in doubt, posters lined the walls: "We are Texas Democrats, all."
The Lone Star State has long escaped the Democrats. But significant mid-term gains in 2018 and a series of Republican congressional retreats – a phenomenon the Democrats happily called "Texodus" – have raised hopes that 2020 will be a year of political upheaval.
"In 35 years or 40 years of work for the Democratic Party, this has never happened in the state of Texas," said Gilberto Hinojosa, president of the state party, to the sound of music. "Texas is now the largest battlefield state in the country."
John Steinbeck said, "Texas is a state of mind. Texas is an obsession. Above all, Texas is a nation in every sense of the word. More recently, Lawrence Wright, a New York writer and resident in Austin, author of God Save Texas: A Journey into the Lone Star State's Soul, wrote: "Texans see themselves as distilling the best qualities of America: friendly, confident, hardworking, patriotic, without neurosis. "
Although Texas is a Republican stronghold rooted in the popular imagination, significant demographic and cultural changes – a growing Hispanic population and an influx of newcomers to cities – are loosening the grip of the GOP. Given the importance of the state in the election of the president, which represented 38 votes and 7% of the electoral college in 2016, this is of enormous importance at the national level.
Suddenly everyone House Speaker Nancy Pelosi According to Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Texas is up for grabs. It was O'Rourke's animated Senate, headed against Cruz last year, which led many people here to believe that the political climate may be changing.
"Texas will be hotly contested in 2020," Cruz said at a breakfast hosted by Christian Science Monitor last week. He was confident that Trump would win, but said the result "will be closer than the last time".
Tom Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said his organization had chosen Houston for the third debate because the state was playing "from top to bottom". He said that there are millions of Latinos who have the right to vote in Texas but who voted in 2018 and could make a difference in 2020.
"Beto O'Rourke has lost 200,000 votes," he said at an event organized as part of "Cafecito con Politics" in Houston on Friday. "There were 3.5 million voters last year – the Latinos – who did not vote and could have voted."
Texas has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1976. Donald Trump continued his momentum in 2016, but much narrower than previous candidates.
Democrats believe that Trump's unpopularity with suburban women and Hispanic voters could accelerate political upheaval.
"1000 new Texans a day"
In popular culture, Texas is often described as emblematic of the spirit of the border, populated by God-fearing conservatives, firearms and ribbons. The reality is more nuanced.
As Wright pointed out, "Texans are hardly monolithic. The state is as politically divided as the rest of the nation. We can cross it and be in two different states at the same time: FM Texas and AM Texas. FM Texas is the silky voice of city dwellers, the realm of national public radio. It's progressive, reasonable, secular – almost like California. AM Texas speaks to the suburbs and rural areas: Trumpland. "
Since 2010, 3.5 million new residents have moved to this state. Jobs and affordable housing continue to attract young workers trained in Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, said Lila Valencia, senior demographer at the Texas Demographic Center.
These newcomers, many of whom are diverse and liberal, are reshaping the political landscape in formerly conservative suburbs. In recent weeks, five Texas Republicans have announced their retirement from Congress, three of which won less than 5% of the vote in 2018.
Among them is Will Hurd, the only black Republican in the House, who defeated Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones by less than 1% in 2018. Jones is again a candidate. If it wins, and unless defeats holders, the entire US-Mexico border, 2,000 miles long, will be represented by the Democrats.
After overthrowing two districts in 2018, the Democrats are targeting half a dozen Republican seats in 2020. For their part, Republicans will aim to reclaim both seats next year.
"We have magic in the air right now, with all the emotions of all communities, but especially the Latin American community," said Lina Hidalgo, a 28-year-old Colombian immigrant who beat a Republican outgoing in Harris County, said at a Houston event.
At a later panel, Latina organizers and activists warned that politicians can not enter their communities, "say a few words in Spanish" and wait for their vote. Awareness must be sincere – and nuanced. As several speakers have pointed out, the Hispanic electorate in Texas is not a monolith and immigration is not their only priority.
"Every cycle[pundits] will start saying "Latinos are not going to turn," said Michelle Tremillo, executive director of the Texas Organizing Project. "It's infuriating because we know that if they have a reason to come forward, they will come forward."
Yet demographic changes – or anger at Trump – will not transform Texas politics, "said Monica Gomez, political director of Annie's List, a progressive women's Democratic election group in Texas. that Democrats should invest heavily in voter registration and mobilization efforts to train these eligible new electors.
"We will be producing more Texans than ever before in 2020," she said. "We win 1,000 new Texans a day. By 2022, there will be more people of Hispanic origin than Caucasian in the state. We are seeing younger and more varied trends. "
Despite growing political influence in Texas and the country, many Hispanic voters say Trump's nativist and anti-immigrant rhetoric makes them uncomfortable.
In August, a shooting in El Paso left 22 people, mostly Latin Americans. The most lethal attack against Latinos in modern American history has forced the conversation on immigration, gun and white nationalism.
In a Univision poll released last week, 71 percent of Texas Latinos said they believed the shooter was a "racist influenced by President Trump's anti-immigrant and anti-Mexican statements."
"Keep Texas Red"
In the run up to the debate, the Texas Democratic Party launched an initiative to register 2.6 million new voters, with a focus on Hispanics and the under-35s. Republicans, on the other hand, rely more and more on white and rural voters. The state GOP has duly launched its own efforts to "keep Texas Red".
Thursday in Houston, a plane flew over the place of debate, followed by a banner on which was written: "Socialism will kill Houston's economy! Vote Trump 2020! "
In the midst of all the Democratic optimism, some observers say that it should not be forgotten that it has been 25 years since Texas last elected a Democrat to a position across the state. And while the state's electoral votes are a tempting gain, some warn that chasing them will be a waste of time. In the opinion of these critics, the party should focus on reclaiming the traditionally Democratic states of the rust belt, such as Wisconsin and Michigan.
In the same state, Democrats believe that the party should absolutely play with Texas.
"The Texas Republicans want us to believe that there was a kind of" Beto miracle "in 2018, that it was a one-off thing and that the Democrats will never get closer again," he said. said Tara Pohlmeyer of the Liberal rights group. Progress Texas.
"But from everything we see on the ground, it's clear that his campaign is no exception – it was just the beginning."
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