Thaioil predicts oil price trend 30 Jul – 3 Aug 2011

Main factors that should affect the price of oil this week :

• Keep an eye on the tensions. The Yemeni pirates attacked two oil carriers on Wednesday, prompting Khalid al-Falih, the Saudi energy minister, to declare. Stop the oil transit through the Strait of Elba Until the situation of tension is resolved
• Venezuelan crude oil production is expected to decrease. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Venezuela's inflation rate will reach 1,000,000 percent by 2018, which means that Venezuela will face high inflation. (Hyperinflation) and will break the record of high inflation rate in modern economic history. The Venezuelan economy has put pressure on the country's crude oil production. Venezuela's production capacity in June Stood at 3 million barrels a day. That's less than the average of 1.9 million barrels per day produced last year.
• The trend has increased. The domestic refining rate declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The recent US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the refining rate of US refineries. During the week ending July 20, the rate had dropped to 8%, down from a high of 97.5%, but we must keep an eye on the rise in crude oil imports from Canada . As a result of Syncrude crude oil production in Canada, the capacity is 360,000 barrels per day. Production is expected to resume in August
• and the production volume of OPEC producers and non-OPEC countries is expected to increase. After the meeting end of June. In the past, manufacturers have agreed to increase the production capacity of 1 million barrels a day. Last year, Saudi Arabia declared its crude oil production in June. Up to 458,000 barrels a day. Compared to the previous month, it was 488 million barrels a day, while Russia increased its production capacity to reach an average of 11.215 million barrels a day. In the first half of July, 61
• The trade war between the United States and China could intensify. After Mr Donald Trump, President of the United States Threaten to import all kinds of Chinese goods worth more than 500 billion dollars. This trade war is expected to affect the global economy and put pressure on global oil demand.
• The economic numbers to watch this week include the eurozone's second-quarter GDP, the producer price index and the consumer price index. Unemployment rate in the euro area Non-agricultural employment in the United States And the US unemployment rate

Summary of the oil price situation over the past week The price of West Texas crude has fallen this week from $ 1.77 to $ 68.69 per barrel, Brent crude oil price rose $ 1.22 to $ 74.29 a barrel. Dubai crude oil closed at 73 dollars a barrel. After being driven by US crude oil stocks. As a result, the price of crude oil was also boosted by workers protesting against British drilling. However, crude oil prices have been subject to market pressures on overcapacity. After the producers both in and out of the OPEC. Led by Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production capacity