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Although the overall picture of the Thai financial system is stable. The Thai economy is expected to continue to grow. As a result, the financial situation of the corporate sector, especially the large ones, has improved. But there are also some fragile issues. The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on June 29, 2018 indicated that the Thai financial system was fragile at some point. There are two key questions to consider: 1) The real estate sector. We see that housing loans are fragile. The increased proportion and debt burden of borrowers has increased relative to income.
2) The search for yield, especially the pursuit of reward through savings cooperatives, continues.
The results of the meeting indicate that the real estate sector has accumulated more vulnerability in the mortgage market. Reflected by the proportion of new housing loans released by commercial banks. The ratio of loans to property values (LTV) has exceeded 90% and loan-to-income ratios (LTIs) have also increased. As the quality of home loans has deteriorated. Reflecting on the rise in the ratio of NPLs
despite the overall financial situation of commercial banks, But it must be prudent to lend in this way. The burden of household debt is high and can affect the household's ability to continue to run the risk.
He must also follow the risks of an unplanned offer on the real estate market. Some condominiums and some price levels are also slowly draining. As real estate developers raise money through loans and debt. To develop activities continuously. This could lead to an acceleration of supply in the future. The meeting also monitored and evaluated competition in the housing credit market and the exceptional supply of condominiums in some locations. Including the provision of office space. And the retail space that can accelerate from the occurrence of the Mixtape project in the future.
NPL
The real estate risk. Prachachart Business Journal, June 7-10 "Bank of Thailand The highest level of bad debts in seven years" because commercial banks are more competitive in housing loans. Especially the average price to high. It has been found that the loan to the value of real estate (LTV) 100% higher than the threshold. The Bank of Thailand has issued a warning signal to monitor the risk. And be more careful about loans. To avoid the risk.
According to the BOT, home loans reached 3.38% in the first quarter of 2008, compared to 3.23% in the previous quarter. The first quarter was the highest level in seven years, compared with the peak of the second quarter of 2010. 3.3%
The Bank of Commerce believes in the agreement [19659002] million. Nattapol Lumpochai Executive Vice President Residential Mortgage Manager Bank of Ayudhya says that home loans are at risk. Most customers are not ready. But home loan Due to the competition of AG with the promotion of interest. There are people who are not ready to enter the market. What is an AG bank? How can potential people access the system? I am not ready to enter the system
. The LTV is concerned about the increase in the proportion. Bank of Ayudhya is 100% because some of them have potential. Bank loans are still under the supervision of the Bank of Thailand, which in the housing association. Commercial Banks There are more discussions. Current competition should be based more on risk.
In addition, Mr. Chartsiri Sophonpanich, President Bangkok Bank said that the direction of economic growth. I think that makes the debt less of a concern. The credit quality of the bank is like the past. There are no worries. Because the economy is stronger.
risky pendant. "The cooperative savings"
Another problem. The MPC is particularly concerned. The search for yield continues to exist. Especially rewarding behavior through savings co-ops. Reflection on deposits and investments in savings cooperative securities, which also grew at a rapid pace. While large savings cooperatives are increasingly dependent on short-term loans
financial conditions are tightening and interest rates on the financial markets are increasing. This will affect fundraising. Financial costs Value of investment in securities And overall liquidity in the cooperative scheme of savings. The meeting agreed that it was urgent to speed up the supervision and improvement of the law to oversee savings cooperatives, especially larger ones. There is no sign of concern
.
In addition, the BOT reported that the savings cooperative has strengthened its search for yield in other sectors. In the next phase, the Thai financial system faces the uncertainty of the monetary policy of the major industrialized countries. Uncertainty on Commercial Discrimination Policy Geopolitical Risk Including the expansion of the Thai economy is not fully distributed. The risk needs to be monitored at times, which can be fragile for the Thai financial system, including the impact of severe financial strains on the refinancing and lending costs of the corporate sector. Especially those who rely on the high debt issue. The ability to repay the debt of SMEs and households. Exceptional offer in co-ownership and supply of offices. And the retail space that can accelerate from mixed real estate projects, including the search for yield, which can lead to lower risk assessments.
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