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There are several reasons why theatrical revenues are down compared to 2018, which is considered a sluggish year.
Twelve days after its national opening, "Captain Marvel" has won more than $ 270 million in North America – but that is not enough to put an end to recent worries about the plummeting box office. Revenues are still down more than 20%, suggesting that an unusual convergence of factors has created a sudden and pronounced lack of interest for the films. Here are four.
Fewer large format movies
Until last weekend, 2019 saw 21 films opened on more than 1500 screens. Last year this figure was 27. Even though it was less profitable titles, six less films contributed at least $ 150 million. This does not mean that individual films have been made less this year; Indeed, the lack of competition may have had the effect of increasing their revenues. However, this looks like the new norm as studios retain their firepower to produce fewer more expensive titles.
"Aquaman"
Christmas was weak
To put it mildly, January is a month for more secondary titles. Much of the gross amount comes from releases from mid-December to the end of December, like the DC Comics movie, "Aquaman" – but this movie grossed $ 100 million less in 2019 than "Jumanji: Welcome to the jungle "in 2018.
In total, the six most profitable films as of December 31, 2017, earned approximately $ 575 million at the 2018 box office. End-of-year titles of 2018 earned $ 400 million in 2019. This represents a decrease $ 175 million.
The attractiveness of each film is definitely a factor, as always. In addition to "Jumanji" last year, the success of word of mouth "The Greatest Showman" was flourishing in January. "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" reported $ 100 million in 2018. This year, the biggest contributor was "Spider-man: in the Spider-Verse", which added $ 80 million.
Reward season was weak
It is hard to believe that it was a year with three nominees for the best film who each earned more than $ 200 million. In total, 2019 nominees in the Best Film category and in the main categories of actors added $ 160 million to their total. In the previous year it was $ 245 million – and it was considered a sabbatical year.
The largest increases this year were the "Green Book" ($ 40 million, first released nationally in late January) and "The Favorite" ($ 17 million). ). Last year, "The Shape of Water", "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" and "The Darkest Hour" all participated in their nominations and their victories brought in an additional $ 30 million or more.
"Black Panther"
Marvel / Disney / Kobal / REX / Shutterstock
The release date of Marvel made all the difference
If "Black Panther" was released on the second weekend of March and "Captain Marvel" in mid-February, year-to-date results would be less dramatic. All in all, expect "Captain Marvel" to drop about $ 200 million under "Black Panther".
All is not lost
Beyond "Captain Marvel", four other titles – "How to Train His Dragon: The Hidden World", "Glass", "The Upside" and "The LEGO Movie: The Second Part" – have already crossed the 100 mark millions of dollars. Last year, at this point, only "Black Panther" managed to achieve this goal, with "Fifty Shades Freed" and "Peter Rabbit" coming close (the first one barely made it). made).
"Dumbo"
Disney
Next weekend we are waiting for Jordan Peele's highly anticipated "We". Next week, Tim Burton's "Dumbo" should surpass everything, except for "Captain Marvel". Warner Bros. hope that "Shazam" in early April and other films might surprise ("Ready Player One" and "The Quiet Place" – both successful – were about the same time in 2018). So by the time of the opening of "Avengers: Endgame" at the end of April, the big ones should be much closer to the ones where they were at the same time in 2018.
This would provide understandable relief. The publication schedule preceding "Endgame" was highly anticipated and should propel the year into a rebound. It is unreasonable to expect the new "Avengers" movie to be faster than last year's $ 700 million. If the total for 2019 is still lower than last year in a few weeks, it might not be a good sign for the whole year. And last year, we still sold fewer tickets than the last few years.
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