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Here’s a breakdown of the most important takeaways from the second quarter of fundraising:
Vulnerable Democrats Extend Their Advantage
Warnock led the way among swing states incumbents with $ 7 million raised and $ 10.5 million in cash, while Kelly raised $ 6 million and had $ 7.6 million left. Both senators picked up where they left off after winning a hotly contested special election.
They were also among the biggest spenders in the last quarter. But the vast majority of the massive spending was reinvested in fundraising. During the quarter, Kelly spent $ 725,000 on digital advertising and Warnock spent nearly $ 950,000 on digital consulting – investments that will likely bolster their already robust low dollar programs.
Republicans still have primaries to settle in both states. Mark Brnovich and Michael McGuire, two Arizona Republicans who launched campaigns in June, raised six figures in truncated neighborhoods (McGuire loaned his campaign $ 200,000). Jim Lamon also raised six figures and loaned $ 2 million to his campaign. Blake Masters just launched his campaign last week.
In Georgia, all eyes are on Herschel Walker, who is not yet a candidate and has not started fundraising. Meanwhile, veteran Latham Saddler has amassed an impressive $ 1.4 million; state agriculture commissioner Gary Black raised $ 703,000 in just a few weeks; and Kelvin King raised approximately $ 671,000, including a candidate loan of $ 300,000. Walker will likely be the giant of this race given his background and the pre-approval of former President Donald Trump, but the other Republicans are raising enough to compete. Rep. Buddy Carter only raised six numbers, but the Savannah-area congressman has $ 1.8 million in the bank if he decides to run.
Meanwhile, Hassan raised $ 3.3 million, while Cortez Masto raised $ 2.8 million. Each has just under $ 7 million on hand. Republicans preferred candidates in both races: Governor Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and former state attorney general Adam Laxalt in Nevada. Each could basically clear their main field if they were running, so they could take their time deciding. But the wait gives Democrats a head start financially.
Trump-backed candidates are outrageous
Representative Ted Budd, who won Trump’s approval in the North Carolina Senate open three-seat primary, raised $ 953,000 in his first quarter of the race, including a candidate loan of 250,000 $. He came in behind former Gov. Pat McCrory, who raised nearly $ 1.3 million in the quarter. Former Rep. Mark Walker rounded out the field with around $ 203,000.
Budd still has a cash edge on his House account: $ 1.7 million versus $ 955,000 for McCrory and $ 926,000 for Walker.
In Alabama, Representative Mo Brooks raised $ 824,000 for the quarter after being approved by Trump in early April. But he was way behind Katie Boyd Britt, who raised more than $ 2.2 million in just weeks after joining the race in June. Britt, former chief of staff to retired Senator Richard Shelby, had nearly $ 2.2 million on hand compared to Brooks’ $ 1.7 million. Lynda Blanchard, a former ambassador, raised just $ 191,000, but she is by far the strongest in the race, $ 5.2 million, most of it from a loan she made to the campaign. earlier this year.
And Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) stepped up fundraising in her first full quarter with a Trump-endorsed Republican challenger. Murkowski raised $ 1.1 million for the quarter, three times more than she raised the previous quarter, and has $ 2.3 million in the bank. She has a huge financial advantage over Republican Kelly Tshibaka, who has raised $ 544,000 and has $ 276,000 in the bank.
Trump’s endorsement in a primary has major benefits that won’t show up in an FEC report. Trump remains very popular among the GOP base, and his endorsement is an excellent publicity medium: Budd already airs radio commercials touting the support. The former president has vowed to campaign in Alaska and is expected to rally in Alabama soon, events that will fuel won media for his favorite candidates. But fundraising reports show there are plenty of opportunities for non-Trump candidates to run strong campaigns in these primaries.
Republicans undecided accelerate
Three key senators who have yet to officially declare their intentions for 2022 have raised enough money to keep their medium-term options open. Johnson has pointedly said he won’t decide to run again anytime soon, although that has concerned some Republicans who want the race to start sooner. But Johnson stepped up his fundraising in the last quarter, raising $ 1.2 million, more than double what he raised in the first three months of this year.
Grassley also said he would wait until the fall to make a decision on seeking an eighth term. Iowa has been a solid Republican recently, but a retirement from Grassley could add some uncertainty if there was a GOP primary to replace him. He raised $ 625,000 in the quarter, more than double his most recent loot. Meanwhile, Murkowski’s $ 1.1 million was more than triple her previous quarter – although she, too, has yet to officially declare whether she is running again.
None of these fundraisers is a declaration of intent. But the three senators are strengthening their campaign apparatuses if they decide to officially vote on the candidates for re-election.
Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) Is the only swing-state GOP holder who has left for the races. Rubio has significantly increased his fundraising, raising $ 4 million and having $ 6.2 million. He faces a costly challenge from Democratic Rep. Val Demings, who raised $ 4.7 million in the quarter after investing heavily in a small fundraiser around the launch of his campaign. She already has $ 3.1 million in the bank.
Primary fields remain up for grabs
Both sides must navigate competitive primaries on critical and open battlefields next year.
In North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley led the field in the first quarter of the race with $ 1.3 million, a solid performance for the candidate with backing from groups like EMILY’s List and The Collective PAC. But Beasley and State Senator Jeff Jackson are close to cash parity: Jackson has $ 865,000, Beasley has $ 833,000. Former state senator Erica Smith is in all five figures. The third quarter will be crucial to see if Beasley can maintain his initial fundraising.
John Fetterman remains the financial giant in Pennsylvania, raising $ 2.5 million and holding $ 3 million on hand. But the Democratic lieutenant governor’s fundraising has slowed from his massive first quarter. Another Democrat, Val Arkoosh, surpassed $ 1 million in the first quarter. State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta raised half a million dollars, and Representative Conor Lamb, who has not officially joined the race but is expected to participate, was just under $ 1 million and has 1, $ 8 million on hand.
On the Republican side, Missouri is wide open. State Attorney General Eric Schmitt was the only candidate to surpass $ 1 million in the second quarter. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, who is already showing up, and Rep. Ann Wagner, who is considering an offer, both rose into six figures. Reps Billy Long and Jason Smith, who also plan to race, came in behind them but still comfortably in six figures. Disgraced former governor Eric Greitens and controversial lawyer Mark McCloskey also spoke about six figures. All of this represents more than half a dozen relatively well-funded potential candidates. The remainder of this year will determine which candidates have real stamina – or whether a less well-funded candidate might squeeze into a divided field.
The Ohio GOP race, on the other hand, is shaping up to be one of the most expensive primaries of all time. Bernie Moreno raised $ 2.2 million in his first quarter as a candidate, without cash flow. Jane Timken surpassed $ 1 million raised for the second consecutive quarter. Josh Mandel has raised seven figures and has $ 5 million in the bank. Mike Gibbons has loaned himself $ 5.7 million to fight the money battle. Every primary candidate has seven numbers in hand, and that’s all before JD Vance even announces his candidacy. Buckle up, Ohioans.
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