The box office decision that allowed the "green book" to win the best image

The Oscar-winning sages are carefully studying award consultants, the highly skilled campaign managers who orchestrate the award-winning film season from the fall festival circuit to the final envelope. However, there is also a ghost world that can make or break the chances of a film, a world in the offices of the distribution and marketing managers. To understand its power, consider winning the best picture for "Green Paper".

Green paper (Universal) Best Movie, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay

Last year, at that time, "Green Paper" was not in the conversation with the Oscars. Universal had originally planned to broadcast Thanksgiving the $ 23 million drama for adults, with a larger release of more than 2,500 screens. The adjacent date of Thanksgiving would give him a chance to get an older audience, as was the case of 20th Century Fox the year before with "Murder in the Orient Express"; this title was worth over 100 million US dollars with little attention to have none). If the "Green Book" was almost gone by Christmas, Universal would still have a lot to do with Peter Jackson's "Deadly Motors" and Robert Zemeckis's "Welcome to Marwen".

And then: "Green Book" has launched screening tests that have been, as they say, through the roof. The premiere of the Toronto International Film Festival resulted in the awarding of the Academy's public choice to the Oscars. However, as November approached, Universal found that the tracking had failed to catch up with public opinion that, in his view, was dormant.

The studio directors (as well as the film partners Participant and Amblin) have therefore rethought. Instead of going away, they took a big risk and withdrew. The film debuted on November 16 in 25 theaters in just 17 cities. It was a bet. Rather than trying to capture the theaters and capitalize on interests that had not materialized so far, the studio would hold back and would allow public opinion to catch up . As word of mouth spread, the film would become theater.

The first results were not impressive. With an average theater average of $ 12,000, we rated the results as "wobbly", others calling them worse. Four theaters in New York and Los Angeles cost less than $ 25,000, a figure that places it below such films as "Wildlife," "Mid90s," "A Boy Erased," and "Colette."

At that time, it was too late to change course. The film was extended to around 1,000 theaters during the Thanksgiving holidays, for adequate but still unimpressive results.

Universal has seen things differently. Not only did he trust word of mouth, but he also saw these initial dates as detailed insights. The result was a Cinemascore A +, and proof that the bet could bear fruit. The film held its theaters, and its averages, at the heart of the box office in early December. The hope was to support the best theaters until Christmas and then bounce back with nominations in mid-January.

Here, Universal received the help of his silk handbag called "Mortal Engines". It's such a disaster that theaters have been able to find more space for "Green Book". as interest increases. In mid-January, along with his Golden Globe wins and Oscar nominations, he jumped to more than 2,000 theaters.

As a result, "Green Paper" was the only candidate for the best film to rank among the top 10 during the voting period. This testimony of public reaction was a critical counterbalance to the film's current criticism and gave increased credibility to the major successes of the Globes and the Producers Guild.

Without this risky distribution strategy, the "Green Paper" would not have kept up the momentum needed for competition. There was no resistance to the Oscars led by any leading nomination, as well as little handcraft recognition outside the key category of editing. Box-office success holds the film's place in the price conversation, even if it is derisory compared to the three best-film contestants who earned more than $ 200 million. That said: He found his greatest popularity among a very similar audience to members of the Academy.

Finally, while the studios are still complaining about the money Netflix has spent promoting "Roma", Universal did not have the courage to continue using the "Green Book" when its revenue did not seem to justify it. Now, with the value of the great Oscars, it's an investment that can pay off.

Clay Enos

A star is born (Warner Bros.) Best Song

The directorial debut of Bradley Cooper was featured as the lead candidate for the best film after his performances in Venice and Toronto. However, while he scored in the nominations (though director missing), he saw his main categories run out of steam. Some may say that it would have been better served with a later version, but its autumn date that took place after the festival launches was very well received: massive financial success and stimulating results for the career of all concerned. (Surprisingly, the movie was never # 1, although it was # 2 for four weeks.)