The day the asteroid could hit | Human world

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Hypothetical orbit for 2019 imaginary asteroid PDC, via ESA.

The European Space Agency (ESA) announced at the end of last week that it was tweeting coverage of a major international impact on asteroids. exercise live via social media from April 29 to May 3, 2019. You can follow the coverage via @esaoperations Twitter channel. It's an exercise – a bit like the tornado exercises that some of us had in primary school – but in this case, led by scientists, space agencies and civil protection organizations, all acting as if an asteroid moves towards an impact with the Earth. This exercise, which simulates an imminent impact of fictitious but plausible asteroids, is performed every two years by asteroid experts from around the world. That's what's been happening since the planetary defense conference in Washington, D.C. ESA:

During the one-week scenario, participants – playing roles such as "national government", "space agency", "astronomer" and "civil protection office" – do not know how the situation will evolve from day to day overnight and must make plans based on the daily updates given to them.

Follow live coverage from April 29 to May 3 via @esaoperations on Twitter

You can also participate, in a more limited way, via the Facebook page of the ESA. It will host two live videos of the Global Defense Conference. The first will take place today (Sunday, April 28) at 12 pm UTC (2 pm (Paris time), translate UTC time in your time) with Rüdiger Jehn, head of global defense at ESA. The second will take place on Thursday, May 2, around the middle of the afternoon, European time.

Check out the videos of the Planetary Defense conference broadcast live on the ESA Facebook page.

For daily updates on the asteroid impact scenario, see "Sliding Cover: Prepare for a Hypothetical Impact on Asteroids," starting the first day of the conference, Monday, April 29 .

Follow ESA's slippery coverage: daily updates on the asteroid impact scenario.

Discover how this dramatic and risky situation will turn into LIVE from this year #PlanetaryDefense Conference, from Monday, April 29th. During the week, we will post live updates as soon as the experts are informed. What will they decide? #FICTIONALEVENT #ItHappenedBefore pic.twitter.com/3y7WTXlOyK

– ESA Operations (@esaoperations) April 26, 2019

This year's hypothetical asteroid has been awarded the "PDC 2019" label. NOTE: Although realistic, all the "objects" and "events" described below are completely fictitious and do not DO NOT describe a real impact on an asteroid. ESA described the fictional scenario as follows:

– An asteroid was discovered on March 26, 2019 and was named PDC 2019 by the Minor Planet Center of the International Astronomical Union (IAU).

– Initial calculations suggest that the 2019 PDC's orbit will bring it within a 7.5 million km radius [4.6 million miles] Earth's orbit. (Or less than 0.05 AU from Earth's orbit).

.- The 2019 PDC travels into an eccentric orbit, extending from 2.94 AU to its furthest point from the sun (in the middle of the main asteroid belt) and 0.94 AU to its closest point. It performs a complete orbit around the sun every 971 days (2.66 years). See its orbit in more detail here.

– In the aftermath of the 2019 PDC discovery, ESA and NASA's impact monitoring systems identify several future dates for the asteroid to strike the Earth. Both systems agree that the asteroid is most likely to strike on April 29, 2027 – in over eight years – with a very low probability of impact of about 1 out of 50,000.

– When it was detected for the first time, the asteroid 2019 PDC was about 57 million km [35.4 million miles] of the Earth, equal to 0.38 astronomical unit [0.38 of the average Earth-sun distance]. He was traveling about 14 km / s [8.7 miles/sec], and slowly becoming brighter.

– As observations continue, the likelihood of an impact in 2027 increases. Three weeks after the discovery, after the pause for observations during the full moon (and in reduced visibility), the odds of impact increased to 0.4%, or one in 250.

Enlarge image | Chart illustrating the hypothetical hypothetical risk corridor of the hypothetical 2019 asteroid PDC, when its orbit is not yet fully known. ESA stated: "The asteroid's uncertainty zone at the time of the potential impact is much longer than the Earth's diameter, but its width is only about 70 kilometers (45 miles) . The intersection of the region of uncertainty and the Earth creates a "risk corridor" on the surface of the Earth. The corridor covers more than half of the globe, from Hawaii in the west, across the West and the Atlantic Ocean, and as far as Central and Southern Africa to the east. The red dots on the Google Earth image plot the risk corridor. "Image via ESA.

– Very little is known about the physical properties of the asteroid. By its brightness, experts determine that the average size of the asteroid can be between 100 and 300 meters. [approximately 300 to 1,000 feet].

– The 2019 Asteroid PDC continued to approach the Earth more than a month after its discovery, reaching its closest point on May 13th. Unfortunately, the asteroid was too far away to be detected and should not pass near Earth until 2027 – year of impact.

– While astronomers continued to follow the 2019 PDC, the risks of impact continued to increase. By April 2019, the first day of the Global Defense Conference, the probability of impact will be increased to 1 in 100.

This exercise is being developed by experts from NASA's Global Defense Coordination Office, which is collaborating with FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) at the 2019 Global Defense Conference in Washington, DC. scientific institutions.

Follow tweets live from April 29 to May 3 via @esaoperations on Twitter

Check out the videos of the Planetary Defense conference broadcast live on the ESA Facebook page.

Follow ESA's slippery coverage: daily updates on the asteroid impact scenario.

Read more from ESA: The day the asteroid could hit

Conclusion: At the Global Defense Conference in Washington, DC – April 29 – May 3, 2019 – scientists, space agencies and civil protection organizations will take action as if an asteroid moves towards an impact with the Earth. This exercise – simulating a fictitious but plausible imminent impact of an asteroid – is performed every two years by these asteroid experts. This story explains how to follow exercise on social networks.