The death toll in the United States from Covid-19 has just surpassed that of the influenza pandemic of 1918

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“If you had spoken to me in 2019, I would have said I would be surprised,” said epidemiologist Stephen Kissler of Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.

“But if you were to talk to me probably in April or May 2020, I would say I wouldn’t be surprised if we reached this point.”

They understood not to give up safety precautions too soon; not to have a false sense of security among young and healthy people; and not rely on unproven treatments.

But Kissler said those lessons weren’t taken into account by many.

“A lot of the mistakes we definitely fell into in 1918, we hoped wouldn’t fall into 2020,” Kissler said. “We were doing.”

Here’s a look at some of the key differences and similarities between the 1918 pandemic influenza and Covid-19:

What is the difference between the two pandemics

The Oakland Municipal Auditorium in California was converted into a temporary hospital with volunteer nurses from the American Red Cross in 1918.

Population: America’s population is now triple what it was in 1918. So while the death toll from Covid-19 may be higher, the 1918 influenza pandemic apparently killed a greater proportion of Americans, said Kissler.

Availability of vaccines: In 1918, there was no vaccine for pandemic influenza, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.
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Now, Covid-19 vaccines are available – but millions of eligible Americans have not been vaccinated.

In the United States, Covid-19 vaccines began rolling out to certain groups in mid-December 2020 – nine months after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic.
By that time, more than 298,000 Americans had already died from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins.
Fast forward to Monday, and 36% of Americans aged 12 and older have yet to be fully immunized amid this wave of Delta variants, according to CDC data.

The rapid spread of disinformation: Kissler said he believed the biggest downside now to the 1918 pandemic actually involved a major technological breakthrough.

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“The internet can be a double-edged sword,” he said. “It gives us the ability to receive CDC and the World Health Organization (updates) and share information much faster. But it also means that we can also spread misinformation quickly.”

For months, doctors have been trying to debunk popular myths shared on social media, claiming they endanger public health and hold the country back.

What is similar between the two pandemics

Young people are not invincible: Just because a person is young and healthy does not mean that they cannot be hit hard by a pandemic virus.

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With the 1918 influenza pandemic, “The high mortality among healthy people, including those between the ages of 20 and 40, was a unique feature of this pandemic,” the CDC said.

About two-thirds of deaths from the 1918 pandemic were among people between the ages of 18 and 50, said John Barry, author of the 2004 book “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History”.

“And the maximum age of death was 28,” Barry told CNN last year.

Perhaps not surprisingly, pandemic influenza spread rapidly among young adults in 1918. It was the last year of World War I, and many young soldiers were close to each other in barracks. .

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While there is no world war now, Covid-19 has proven that young people can still be hit hard – even if their risk of death is much lower.
“We have absolutely seen – especially with the long Covid – that young people are far from invincible,” Kissler said.

Personal responsibility matters: No matter how good the scientific and public health advice, “these things are only as good as the behavioral response,” Kissler said.

During the 1918 influenza pandemic, when cases declined in San Francisco, “the city fathers said,” Let’s open the city. Let’s have a big parade downtown. We will take off all of our masks together, “” epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brillant said.

“Two months later, because of this event, the great flu roared back.”

Across the United States, Philadelphia suffered a similar fate.

Even though 600 sailors from the Philadelphia Navy Yard were infected with the virus in September 1918, the city did not cancel a parade scheduled for September 28, 1918.

Philadelphia did not cancel a parade in 1918. The results were devastating
Three days later, Philadelphia had 635 new cases of the flu, according to the University of Pennsylvania Archives and Records Center.

“Quickly, Philadelphia became the city with the highest number of flu deaths in the United States,” says Penn Research.

In contrast, Saint-Louis – which had planned a similar parade but canceled it – fared much better. The following month, more than 10,000 people in Philadelphia died from the pandemic flu, while the death toll in St. Louis did not exceed 700, the CDC said.
Now, in mid-2021, almost all new deaths from Covid-19 could have been prevented with vaccination, the CDC director said.
the "In America: Remember" A public art installation in Washington, DC, commemorates all Americans who have died from Covid-19. As of September 18, more than 660,000 small plastic flags were at the site, some with personal messages to those who died.

Viruses may spread long after the pandemic: The World Health Organization defines a pandemic as the “global spread” of a new disease.

But there is no precise measure of the end of a pandemic.
While the CDC said the 1918 pandemic occurred in three waves, from the spring of 1918 through the summer of 1919, the virus continued to circulate seasonally for 38 years.
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Kissler said he believes SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, could also persist for years – even if the “pandemic” is over.

“We will have new variants,” including some that could cause reinfection, Kissler predicted. But ultimately, “I think those variants are probably going to be pretty closely related to things we’ve been vaccinated against or things we’ve been exposed to before that they don’t cause the same type of serious illness.”

He stressed that the best way to get protection and help this pandemic evaporate is to get vaccinated – not to wait for exposure to the virus, which could result in a long Covid, hospitalization or the death.

“Basically what the vaccine does is it gives you your first and second exposure for free” – without the dangers of Covid-19, Kissler said.

“It’s extremely useful, and it goes a long way in reducing mortality.”

Jacqueline Howard of CNN contributed to this report.

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