[ad_1]
Past projections of energy costs have systematically underestimated just how cheap renewables would be in the future, as well as the benefits of deploying them quickly, according to a new report from the Institute of New Economic Thinking. Oxford University.
The report makes predictions on over 50 technologies such as solar power, offshore wind, and more, and compares them to a future that still runs on carbon. “This is not just good news for renewables. This is good news for the planet, ”Matthew Ives, one of the report’s authors and principal investigator at the Oxford Martin Post-Carbon Transition Program, told Ars.
The paper used probabilistic cost forecasting methods, taking into account both past data and current and ongoing technological developments in renewable energy, for its conclusions. He also used large data caches from sources such as the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Bloomberg. Beyond examining the cost (represented in dollars per unit of energy production over time), the report also presents its findings in three scenarios: a rapid transition to renewables, a slow transition and no transition. at all.
Compared to sticking to fossil fuels, a quick switch to renewables could mean billions of dollars in savings, even without considering the damage caused by climate change or the co-benefits of reduced pollution. Even beyond savings, the deployment of renewable energy sources could help the world limit global warming to 1.5 ° C. According to the report, though solar, wind and the myriad of other tools of green energy was following the deployment trends they should see in the coming decade, in 25 years the world could potentially see a net zero energy system.
“The energy transition will also save us money. We should be doing it anyway, ”Ives said.
Plateau, or not?
The cost of renewables has steadily declined as the world begins to transition away from fossil fuels. Solar power, for example, is now cheaper than building new coal or gas-fired power plants, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, several reports in the past have suggested that at one point or another, the decline in renewable energy costs will start to stabilize. For example, the same IEA report suggests that offshore wind prices will start to stabilize now.
However, another recent article looked at projections for the future of renewable resources and also found that much of the previous research underestimated future cost reductions in the field. According to Ives, previous reports consistently underestimate technological advances that lead to the continued decline in the price of renewables. Ives’ article suggests that the models used in these other forecasts had two problems: they make assumptions about the maximum growth rates of renewables, and they use “cost floors,” a point at which prices cannot. lower more.
Ives’ report focuses primarily on the process of technological advancement, which is part of what made renewables cheaper. Renewable energies have consistently exceeded the expectations of previous articles. “They’ve been wrong on these predictions for quite some time,” Ives said. “You can see that we have consistently exceeded these forecasts over and over again. “
The Institute of New Economic Thinking report does not impose a firm deadline on a cost plateau for renewable energy. Rather than there being a plateau caused by the progress, Ives said it’s more likely that prices will decline more slowly once things like solar and wind eventually dominate the market. At this point, technological advancements may very well be happening, but they might not be deployed as frequently as they are now. “It’s the deployment that’s slowing it down,” Ives said.
“Too pessimistic”
It also largely matches IRENA’s conclusion, according to Michael Taylor. He is a senior analyst at the group, which recently published its own report. According to Taylor, the group found that the cost-cutting drivers – improved technology, supply chains, scalability and manufacturing processes – for solar and wind power are expected to continue at least during the years. Next 10 to 15 years. It is possible that previous forecasts were conservative in their estimates, he said.
“I would expect them to be too pessimistic,” Taylor told Ars.
However, he noted that there are issues that could slow down reductions. The pandemic, for example, has disrupted global supply chains and made it more difficult to obtain certain essential materials, such as polysilicon used in solar panels. There are also some obstacles to the full implementation of renewable energy, such as oil and gas subsidies, public opinion, permits, etc.
“Only for purely economic reasons, there are growing benefits for consumers by accelerating the deployment of renewable energy production,” Taylor said. “We encourage policymakers to seriously consider trying to remove the barriers that currently exist.
[ad_2]
Source link