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Numbers: Pending US home sales fell 2.6% in October to 102.1 in October from 104.8 in September, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. It was the lowest since June 2014.
What happened: The NAR index, which follows the signing of real estate contracts, fell by 6.7% compared to the previous year. The report missed the consensus of Econoday for an unchanged reading.
The signing of contracts generally precedes the closing of approximately 45 days. As a result, the publication of pending home sales is considered a leading indicator for the report on existing home sales.
In October, pending sales in the Northeast increased 0.7%. It was the only region to see an increase. In the Midwest, sales fell 1.8%, in the South, by 1.1% and in the West, by 8.9%.
Big picture: The housing situation darkens. The real estate agent trade group now expects existing home sales to decline by 3.1 per cent in 2018 and 0.4 per cent in 2019. The group also expects home prices to fall by 2.5 per cent. next year.
Lily: We are probably in peak periods. Here is what it means.
What they say: Economists have been mixed on housing market signals, though warning signals are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
when new home sales decline and inventories increase, as we have seen in recent months, this is generally not a good sign for the economy pic.twitter.com/UnvWdZQ3cq
– Leonard Kiefer (@lenkiefer) November 28, 2018
"In all respects, we are witnessing a buyers' strike this year, as potential buyers are fed up with expensive prices, frantic auctions on the few homes for sale and the recent rise in mortgage rates," said Stephen. Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont. Securities. "Slowing home price appreciation over the past few months should help better balance the real estate market."
Market reaction: 10-year US Treasury yield
TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.48%
has retreated in recent weeks, which should offer homebuyers a reprieve on mortgage rates, if the demand is still there.
Lily: This chart shows the sparkling momentum of the real estate market
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