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According to an update released August 20 by the US Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), the next launch of SpaceX by the USAF – the third GPS III satellite completed – failed a month and is not more expected in January 2020 (NET).
Known as the GPS III, Space Vehicle 03 (SV03), SpaceX's next military launch will follow just a few months after the launch of the GPS III SV02 by United Launch Alliance (ULA), which is expected to take off at 22:00 EDT on 22 August . SpaceX launched the long GPS III launch campaign in December 2018, successfully placing communications and geolocation spacecraft of approximately 3900 kg (8600 lb) in a transfer orbit. The mission also marked the first intentional launch of the Falcon 9 Block 5 by SpaceX, a trend that may or may not continue with the company's next GPS launch.
Known as the GPS Block IIIA, the SV01-03 represents the top three of a batch of 10 satellites, produced by Lockheed Martin for a projected cost of about $ 600 million each. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) expects [PDF] Reduced cost per unit savings per unit for Block IIIA monitoring, Block IIIF, in which 22 additional GPS III satellites will be constructed to completely upgrade the Army GPS constellation. GAO estimates that these 22 satellites – which will probably also be built by Lockheed Martin – will cost an astounding $ 12 billion, about $ 550 million each.
At the scale of the US Army's terribly inefficient space-grabbing device, about $ 600 million per satellite is unfortunately a very good deal. Two equally modern USAF satellite acquisition programs – Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) constellations and space infra-red systems – have been more than double their original cost estimates. On the whole program, the GAO estimates that six AEHF satellites not less than $ 3 billion each, while SBIRS is in an even worse situation with six new satellites that will cost $ 3.2 billion each.
Meanwhile, Raythe's "OCX" ground-based systems needed to take advantage of the GPS III ~ 19 billion satellite upgrades were just as much a waste of acquisition, almost doubling the cost in recent years. years, bringing to zero less than $ 6.2 billion after years of delay. In total, the completion of the new GPS III constellation is expected to cost a minimum of $ 25 billion. This cost does not even include launches, but the launch cost of all spacecraft represents – in rare cases – a small fraction of the overall acquisition, perhaps $ 3-4 billion for the 32 satellites.
Regardless of nightmarish costs and overall inefficiency, Lockheed Martin and the US Air Force continue to progress slowly toward the initial operability of GPS III. The launch of the ULA program on 22 August and the launch of SpaceX in January 2020 will make considerable progress in this direction and will, hopefully, be followed by two additional launches of the Falcon 9 GPS III in 2020. Six of the ten IIIA satellites have already been awarded launch contracts, five of the six of which have been awarded to SpaceX.
End of year fireworks
The GPS III SV03 slip from December 2019 to January 2020 comes as plans for an ambitious final quarter begin to take shape for SpaceX. Curiously, SpaceX is currently experiencing more than two months of interruption between its last launch (AMOS-17 of August 6) and its next mission (Starlink 1, NET end of October). This will be SpaceX's longest experience without launch since the catastrophic bankruptcy of Falcon 9 that blocked the company's launch operations from September 2016 to January 2017.
Clearly, the payloads of customers are simply not ready, as SpaceX's Starlink constellation team is working hard to update the satellite's design and prepare for two consecutive launches. as early as October and November. satellites in orbit.
In addition to the two Starlink launches planned for late October and November, SpaceX has at least six other missions that could potentially be launched in the fourth quarter of 2019.
| launching | Date (No sooner than) |
| Starlink 1 | October 17 |
| Starlink 2 | November 4th |
| Dragon of the crew – Abandon in flight | November 11th |
| ANASIS-II – South Korea | November – to be determined |
| JCSat-18 / Kacific-1 | November – to be determined |
| Cargo Dragon CRS-19 | December 4th |
| Sirius XM-7 (SXM-7) | Q4 2019 – to be determined |
| Dragon Crew – Demo-2 | December – to be determined |
The lack of Sirius XM updates and the fact that the launch of Crew Dragon's Demo-2 relies entirely on the successful completion of its previous IFA drop-off mean that both very probably in 2020. The remaining six launches, however, have a very decent chance to launch in 2019, assuming everything runs smoothly during preparations for pre-flight satellite, Falcon 9 and launch pad.
SpaceX has already successfully completed six launches in three months several times before. Six launches in the fourth quarter of 2019 are therefore quite feasible, although a pragmatic one would be better off expecting additional delays by 2020.
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