The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases in the United States is on the rise.

The end of the pandemic may be in sight, but we’re not quite there yet: Coronavirus cases in the United States are on the rise again. Over the past week, the United States reported an average of 61,583 new cases of COVID-19 per day, which is a 12% increase from two weeks ago. That’s a far cry from the peak in January, when the country had an average of 250,400 new cases per day, but the trend is in the wrong direction.

Scientists attribute these rising numbers to two things: the spread of more transmissible coronavirus variants and state and local governments prematurely relaxing measures designed to slow the spread of the virus. The variant known as B.1.1.7, now widespread in the United States, is at least 50% more transmissible than previous variants, and public health officials are now in a race to deploy vaccines before the variants do cause a new wave of infections. . Existing vaccines protect against all of the coronavirus variants currently prevalent in the United States, but may be less effective against B.1.351, a variant identified in South Africa.

Epidemiologist Bill Hanage of the Harvard TH School of Public Health told the New York Times that the mismatch between scientists’ predictions and the government’s response reminded him of the early days of the pandemic. “People waited until they posed a problem before they acted – and too late they acted,” Hanage said. Still, there is at least one silver lining: Compared to previous coronavirus outbreaks, these new cases may result in fewer deaths and hospitalizations, as many of the most vulnerable people have now been vaccinated.