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- Even if the objectives of the Paris Agreement are met, winter temperatures in the Arctic will increase by 3 to 5 ° C by 2050 from 1986 to 2005 levels.
- Defrosting permafrost could wake the "sleeping giant" from more greenhouse gases, which could compromise global climate goals.
- Ocean acidification and pollution are also major threats to the Arctic
Nairobi, March 13, 2019 – Even if the world reduced its emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement, winter temperatures in the Arctic would increase by 3 to 5 ° C by 2050 and by 5 to 9 ° C. here 2080, devastating the region and releasing the sea level around the world, finds a new report from the UN Environment.
At the same time, the rapid melting of permafrost could even accelerate climate change and hamper efforts to achieve the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the rise in global temperature to 2. ° C, warns Global Linkages – An Overview Of The Evolution Of The Arctic.
Other environmental pressures identified in the document issued by the United Nations Environment Assembly include ocean acidification and plastic pollution.
"What is happening in the Arctic is not staying in the Arctic," said Joyce Msuya, the acting executive director of the United Nations for the Environment. "We have science; It is now necessary to take more urgent measures to combat climate change in order to avoid the critical points that could be even more serious for our planet than we thought.
Even if global emissions were to stop overnight, winter temperatures in the Arctic would still increase by 4 to 5 ° C by 2100 compared to the end of the 20th century, the study reveals. This increase is linked to the climate system by the greenhouse gases already emitted and the heat storage of the oceans.
Arctic societies must now deal with climate change by taking appropriate adaptation measures. Aboriginal peoples in the Arctic are already facing increased food insecurity. According to the report, by the year 2050, four million people, and about 70 per cent of today's Arctic infrastructure, will be threatened by permafrost thaw.
"The urgency of achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement is evident in the Arctic, as it is one of the most vulnerable and changing regions of the world. of the world., Said the Finnish Kimmo Tiilikainen, Minister of the Environment, Energy and Housing. "WIt is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas, black carbon and other short-lived climate pollutants worldwide in the short term."
The global impacts would also be huge. From 1979 to the present, the Arctic sea ice would have decreased by 40%. Climate models predict that at the current rate of CO₂ summer emissions, Arctic summers will be released from ice by 2030. The melting of Greenland ice and Arctic glaciers contributes to a third of the sea level rise in the world.
Even if the Paris agreement is respected, the permafrost in the Arctic is expected to decrease by 45% compared to today. Globally, these frozen soils contain about 1,672 billion metric tons of carbon. An increased thaw is expected to contribute significantly to carbon dioxide and methane emissions. The resulting warming will in turn result in more thawing – an effect known as "positive feedback". This accelerated climate change could even deflect the 2 ° C target of the Paris Agreement, says the report.
Ocean acidification and pollution make victims
Ocean acidification has a disproportionate impact on marine species in the Arctic. Indeed, cold water can contain more dissolved CO2, while melted ice extends the acidity. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the world's oceans have become 30% more acidic. The more acidic the water, the more arctic corals, molluscs, sea urchins and plankton must be used to build their shells and skeletons.
Despite its blank image, the Arctic's geographical features and cold climate make the oceans, seabeds and coastlines of the region a sink for contaminants around the world. Only 1 000 of the 150 000 chemical substances used in the world are subject to regular monitoring. A global report therefore recommends a global approval system for new chemicals. Alternative controls are also considered necessary for chemicals not covered by existing treaties.
On a positive note, it was found that the amount of regulated chemicals in humans and animals living in the Arctic was decreasing. These include certain persistent organic pollutants regulated by the United Nations Stockholm Convention on the Environment. However, the decrease could be due to dietary change.
The report can be downloaded electronically at the following address:
UN Environment and Arendal Grid
NOTES TO EDITORS
The Arctic has just over four million inhabitants, about 10% of whom are indigenous. Permafrost is a soil that remains frozen for two years or more and is located at high latitudes and high altitudes, as well as under arctic continental shelves.
the United Nations Assembly for the Environment is the highest environmental decision-making body in the world. Between March 11 and March 15, 2019, UN member states set environmental priorities for the coming years and committed themselves to action.
To request interviews or for more information, please contact:
Alejandro Laguna, Regional Information Officer, United Nations Office for the Environment in Europe: laguna[at]un.org +41 229178537.
Mark Grassi, Information Assistant, UN Office for the Environment in Europe: mark.grassi[at]un.org +41 229178279
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