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The recent spikes in coronavirus cases in Los Angeles County and elsewhere in California underscore a pandemic divergence, in which the unvaccinated face increasing danger, while the vaccinated can resume regular activities without fear of becoming ill.
Some who have not been vaccinated may have hoped that the dramatic drop in COVID-19 cases this spring and summer – which officials attribute to a robust vaccination campaign – would be enough to protect them without getting vaccinated. But with the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, infections are on the rise again – and communities with low vaccination rates are in the crosshairs.
Los Angeles County has reported more than 3,000 new cases of coronavirus in the past three days. It was the first time since early March that the county had reported three consecutive days with more than 1,000 new cases.
COVID-19-related hospitalizations are also on the rise. They reached 373 on Friday – the highest since early May and 76% higher than the record 212 on June 12. LA County reported 372 hospitalizations for COVID-19 on Saturday.
Unvaccinated people can play an increasingly risky game of chance. The coronavirus case rate for unvaccinated California residents is eight times higher than for vaccinated residents: per 100,000 unvaccinated residents, 4.9 per day are infected, while per 100,000 vaccinated residents, 0.6 is infected.
“Previously, when we saw outbreaks happen, everyone must have been very worried,” said Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, medical epidemiologist and infectious disease expert, Fielding School of Public Health at UCLA. “However, in the current situation, it is really those who are not vaccinated who should be of great concern.
“Summary: There is no safe haven from COVID-19 if you are not vaccinated,” he added. “The virus will find you. ”
Authorities do not expect conditions to deteriorate to levels seen last winter, before vaccines are available. Neither Governor Gavin Newsom nor LA County officials have suggested placing new restrictions on businesses or other public spaces to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
But the increase in hospitalizations and cases, which coincides with the increase in circulation of the hyper-contagious variant Delta, means more people need to be vaccinated.
“We still have just under 4 million people in LA County who are not yet vaccinated. The risk of increased spread remains very high, ”said Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer. “The most effective way to protect people in hard-hit communities… will be to close immunization gaps. “
California has been among the best performing states in terms of immunization – with more than 59% of residents of all ages having received at least one dose, according to data compiled by The Times. Among adults, 76% received at least one dose, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, making California the 10th most vaccinated state.
But this big positive image can be misleading. Immunization rates differ by county, community, age, and racial and ethnic group, and even areas with strong immunization coverage can have pockets of people who remain at risk. This is because there are millions of people in California who have yet to receive a dose because they are too young or don’t want to.
“The first line of defense for all ages 12 and up is, of course, to build your confidence in this vaccine, get the right information and come as soon as possible to get the vaccine,” Ferrer said. “And for those who haven’t been vaccinated yet, you have to go back to doing what we all did before we got vaccines.”
One estimate suggests that it may take 84% of a population to be inoculated or have survived a previous infection to achieve herd immunity against the Delta variant; on the other hand, it would take perhaps 71% to reach such a threshold against less contagious strains.
In Los Angeles County, the Delta variant has spread mainly among unvaccinated people. The first groups attributed to Delta were identified among at least 49 residents of Palmdale and Lancaster, including 14 household members.
About 59% of LA County residents of all ages have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Black residents are among the least likely to be vaccinated; 45% of black residents 16 and older have been vaccinated, compared to 54% of Latinos, 65% of white residents, and 76% of Asian Americans.
This is why, according to experts, black residents are more likely to test positive for the coronavirus or to be hospitalized with COVID-19. Between June 13 and June 26, per 100,000 black residents of LA County, 65 were positive; for Latinos, the figure was 26; for white residents, 22; and for Asian Americans, 10.
During the same period, per 100,000 black residents, 9.3 were newly admitted to hospitals with COVID-19; versus 5.4 Latinos, 2.7 White residents, and 1.7 Asian American residents.
Of LA County residents aged 16 and older, 69% received at least one dose. Some communities have lower rates; for example, less than 55% of this age group are at least partially vaccinated in Westlake, Compton, Lancaster and parts of southern LA. South Pasadena, Rolling Hills Estates, Monterey Park, Culver City and Marina del Rey.
Elsewhere in California, counties with the highest vaccination rates, such as Marin, San Francisco and Santa Clara, have been successful in keeping hospital admissions low and stable. But other counties with slightly lower vaccination rates, like Alameda and Sonoma, have seen notable spikes.
Alameda County reports that 70% of residents of all ages have received at least one dose, while Sonoma County reports 66%. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Alameda County fell from 37 on June 29 to 64 on Saturday, and those in Sonoma County fell from six on June 17 to 37 on Saturday.
The problem is the same in both countries: the virus spreads among the unvaccinated.
The increase in case rates in Sonoma County is in part due to infections among the homeless population. A large outbreak has been reported at the county’s largest homeless shelter in Santa Rosa, where 48 have been infected. These are the first cases reported there since the pandemic peaked in January.
“This outbreak is unique from January because it involves the Delta variant, to which the homeless community is particularly vulnerable,” wrote John Pavik, deputy director of communications for Catholic Charities, the nonprofit that operates the city-owned Samuel Jones Hall Homeless Shelter. in an email.
Trends in California mirror those of the nation as a whole, according to federal officials.
The Delta variant is booming in pockets across the country with low vaccination rates, CDC director Dr Rochelle Walensky said. Many areas where less than 40% of residents have been vaccinated “are the places in the country where we are seeing an increase in hospitalizations and deaths among unvaccinated people,” she said.
“On the one hand, we have seen the successes of our vaccination program (…) with cases, hospitalizations and deaths well below the peaks seen in January,” said Walensky. “And yet, on the other hand, we are starting to see some new and worrying trends. Simply put, in areas with low immunization coverage, cases and hospitalizations are on the rise. “
With the vaccine rollout in California almost 7 months ago, there is growing evidence that the vaccines actually work. Studies in the UK show that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 96% effective in preventing hospitalizations, and authorities believe the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are equally effective.
Experts note that vaccines only offer the highest level of protection when a person has received the full regimen – either one injection from Johnson & Johnson, or two from Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna.
About 51% of Californians are fully vaccinated. But some Californians who have started their inoculation course have not yet completed it, leaving them potentially exposed to infection – particularly from Delta. The recommended interval between injections is three weeks for Pfizer-BioNTech and four weeks for Moderna, but experts advise ending the series regardless of how long it has been since the first dose.
In San Diego County, more than 140,000 residents are overdue for their second dose, officials said. It is not known how many other Californians are in the same boat. The State Department of Public Health said second-dose delinquency data was not immediately available on Friday.
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