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The public conversation about who is at risk as the Delta variant continues to spread in the United States has been derailed, and it is very possible that it will only get worse.
What we are looking at: Even as experts and officials try to put the risk of vaccinated Americans into context, the world continues to collect data on the effectiveness of vaccines. Reassuring the majority of vaccinated Americans that they don’t need to panic could backfire if it provokes those who are at the risk of lowering your guard.
Driving the news: Public health experts spent the weekend trying to reassure vaccinated Americans that they were not at high risk of coronavirus infection, and certainly no hospitalization or death.
- But at the same time, researchers around the world are trying to determine how much the effectiveness of vaccines against serious illnesses declines over time, and some countries are pushing ahead with booster shots for people who are immunocompromised and old people.
- Israel recommended that immunocompromised people and people 60 years and older receive a third injection of the Pfizer vaccine, and Germany plans to start offering boosters to the elderly and at risk from September, AFP reports.
- U.S. officials increasingly believe at least some Americans will need recalls in the coming months, and Pfizer has also publicly advocated for the recalls.
Between the lines: The risk may look very different for residents of vaccinated nursing homes and older Americans, especially those who received their vaccines early on, than a vaccinee in their twenties without any health concerns.
- The number of cases in nursing homes is increasing, in part because nearly 2 in 10 residents are not vaccinated and more than 4 in 10 workers are not.
- But cases of rupture are also more problematic in retirement homes, tweeted Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown’s School of Public Health. “[Nursing home] residents were among the first to get vaccinated, ”Jha wrote. “According to Israeli data, their immunity may be waning. “
- “And second, they are vulnerable, often fragile,” he added. “So a breakthrough infection, which can be a nuisance for a healthy person, can be very serious for a frail person.”
The scientific world tries to collect and interpret new data in real time, and nuanced data is difficult to communicate well to an anxious and frustrated audience.
- But data on Delta’s transmissibility has not been well communicated.
- “The Biden administration’s handling of the Delta surge left Americans confused and frustrated, fueling media overreaction and political manipulation,” Axios’ Mike Allen wrote over the weekend.
The bottom line: Vaccines work extremely well, including against Delta, and vaccinees are currently at much lower risk than unvaccinated ones.
- But that doesn’t mean no one who gets vaccinated is at risk, and that doesn’t mean anyone’s risk can’t change over time.
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