This is the best news yet for Moderna’s COVID vaccine

Modern (NASDAQ: ARNM) has announced its share of good news over the past two months. The biotech company has generated positive results in the Phase 3 trial of its investigational coronavirus vaccine. Then, the United States Food and Drug Administration granted the product emergency use authorization within weeks. Moderna also signed advance purchase agreements for 2021 which represent more than $ 11 billion in revenue. This is a big deal for a business that had no revenue just a few months ago.

It all looks promising. But there is a bit of news that is even better. This means that Moderna’s vaccine is feasible for long-term use. Ready to find out more? Read on.

Image source: Getty Images.

A great unknown

A big unknown regarding all vaccines in development has been the duration of protection against the coronavirus. In the cases of Moderna and rivals such as Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), measurements of neutralizing antibody levels were strong weeks after vaccination. These are the antibodies known to block infection. But it was too early to tell if those antibody levels would stay high for at least a year.

If the antibody levels drop significantly, the effectiveness of the vaccine also decreases. And if these antibodies disappear completely, the body is left defenseless. Here’s a possibility the researchers dread: a vaccine that only elicits a strong antibody response for a month or two. This would mean that each person would have to be vaccinated several times a year.

In December, Moderna provided optimistic news in a letter to the editor published in The New England Journal of Medicine. The company looked at the levels of neutralizing antibodies in 34 phase 1 participants three months after receiving the second dose of the vaccine. Although the levels declined slightly, as expected, they remained high, the company reported. And they remained higher than those of recovering coronavirus patients.

Even better news arrived earlier this month. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said the vaccine could provide protection for “a few years”. This removes this major unknown about the lifetime of antibodies.

Moderna did not start clinical trials until March. It is therefore impossible for the company to draw this conclusion from 12 months or more of test data. But Bancel explains the idea by saying that the “disintegration of antibodies” in humans vaccinated with the Moderna vaccine has been slow.

A boost

Of course, this only applies to the Moderna vaccine. Pfizer’s term and BioNTechthe vaccine or rival vaccine candidates are still unclear. So this new development puts Moderna ahead of the crowd when it comes to a very important piece of the immunization issue. Moderna has yet to recommend how often people should get her vaccine. But the company plans to test the possibility of a booster administered one year after vaccination with two doses to a person. This study will begin in July.

Moderna’s plan for a booster shot one year after the initial vaccination – or even a full vaccination at two doses per year – are ideal scenarios. Here are the benefits: These give Moderna ample time to manufacture and deliver doses. And more people can be protected with a certain number of doses if the vaccination is done every year rather than every few months.

An annual vaccine also means that health systems have enough time to organize immunizations. And people will be more inclined to get vaccinated; most did not want to be vaccinated every two months in the long term.

What does all of this mean for investors?

This news removes an important element of uncertainty. If Moderna’s vaccine only worked for a few months, it would have been disastrous for the company and its stock market – especially if a rival vaccine maker had produced longer lasting immunity.

That said, Moderna is still a risky investment. For now, the biotech company’s revenue and performance depend on the coronavirus vaccine (its only product on the market). If something goes wrong, stocks could fall seriously.

But Moderna is not as risky as it was last year – when the coronavirus vaccine program was in its infancy and its mRNA technology had yet to be validated. He passed the hurdles of clinical trials, emergency clearance and now vaccine duration. All of this is good news, establishing Moderna as a strong player in the coronavirus vaccine market. And that means Moderna stock, which gained over 400% last year, could be on the verge of a winning second year.