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Posted on August 21, 2021 at 7:42 AM
We have just returned from mid August. Just a week ago, consecutive days hit a heat index in the upper 90s. So why not think about the snow?
Winter storms are the stuff of everyone’s talk, whether you think they’re the ones that reacted the most to the events of the year or can’t wait to get out the snowblowers, snowmobiles and sleds.
The Farmers’ Almanac this week released projections, including a mild start to winter, followed by a “whopper” of a February storm for the east.
More importantly than the actual forecast, in my opinion is who, or what, proposed it. Anyone who knows what’s going to happen so far in advance is someone the Times News Grid Picks contestants want in their corner this fall.
It turns out that this person’s name is Caleb Weatherbee and has worked in the weather forecasting business for over two centuries. Weatherbee, in fact, is a pseudonym for the person responsible for the secret formula of the Farmers Almanac.
According to media reports, only seven Caleb Weatherbees have existed in the publication’s history. The current Weatherbee has been working there for over 25 years with no end in sight.
The Farmers Almanac works hard to ensure Weatherbee’s identity is kept a secret.
“We don’t want everyone to know what his real name is,” the editors said in an interview with Mental Floss. “We don’t want anyone harassing Caleb. He has an important job, so we have to make sure he can keep doing it. “
I wonder if Marta Gouger, editor of The Times News, would allow me to use a pseudonym to avoid harassment.
Coming back to the forecasting formula, it was developed in 1818 and is essentially a buffet of math and astronomy.
Before we go looking for Weatherbee or start marking potential snow days for your kids this winter, let’s take a look at their accuracy. Many believers claim that predictions are correct 80% of the time, but forecasters set them more than 30%. It looks like most of my March Madness brackets.
In addition to the “winter whopper” around the last week of February, the almanac also predicts significant storms in the second week of January and the second week of March.
As for the winter of 2022 as a whole, it should include an amount of snow “average” and temperatures slightly below average, according to the almanac.
What does the National Weather Service have to say about all of this? Nothing yet. The NWS usually publishes its winter forecast between September and November.
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