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After Paramount pushes its Tom Cruise “Top Gun: Maverick” tent pole in 2022, theater owners are increasingly worried, fearing the move could inspire a rush of movie delays. With the theater industry stuck in variant-induced limbo, Hollywood is reexamining distribution strategies for upcoming films like MGM’s Bond sequel “No Time to Die”, Marvel’s “Eternals” and “Venom: Let There Be. Carnage”.
Will these films, all of which have exclusive theatrical releases, making their theatrical debuts as planned, or will their respective studios push them further into the future? As the Delta variant continues to spread, the potential domino effect of “Top Gun: Maverick” seems familiar. After all, many of these films have been delayed multiple times as COVID-19 continues to ravage many parts of the world. Still, the latest setback could derail any hope that the movie industry will recover by the end of the year.
Although representatives from Sony, MGM, Disney, Universal and Warner Bros. declined to comment or denied any other delay on the release schedule, box office pundits predict that “Top Gun: Maverick” might not be the only film to drop its spot in 2021.
“I don’t think you can be surprised by any movement these days,” says Eric Handler, exhibition industry analyst at MKM Partners. “It’s a tough environment to release a film with a budget of $ 200 million. “
For now, several high-profile films remain on schedule through 2021, including Universal’s musical adaptation of “Dear Evan Hansen” (September 24), the prequel to Warner Bros. “Sopranos” “The Many Saints of Newark” (October 1). , “No Time to Die” (Oct. 8), Sony’s comic book sequel “Venom: Let There be Carnage” and Universal’s slasher “Halloween Kills” (Oct. 15), Warner Bros. reimagining “Dune” (Oct 22), Marvel’s superhero adventure “Eternals” (Nov 5), Sony’s supernatural comedy “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” (Nov 19), remake of “West Side Story” by Disney (December 10), Sony’s “Spider-Man: Far From Home” (December 17) and Warner Bros. ‘ “The matrix resurrections” (December 22).
An ironic bright spot for cinema operators: since Warner Bros. simultaneously putting their entire 2021 roster on HBO Max, the studio is unlikely to change the release dates of their upcoming films. Studio sports drama “King Richard” with Will Smith (November 19), as well as Western drama “Cry Macho” by Clint Eastwood (September 17) will also be in theaters and on HBO Max.
Unless movie theaters see a noticeable increase in attendance, insiders believe “No Time to Die” may have no choice but to move. That’s because veteran producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson, who have unprecedented control over the venerable film franchise, are unlikely to allow Adventure 007 to debut simultaneously on streaming platforms, this which would cushion the blow of depressed ticket sales. Keeping the 25th installment of the long-running British spy series in theaters, at least at a time when audiences have expressed heightened apprehension about going to the movies, remains risky as debts in bonds are extremely business. costly and must generate hundreds of millions in the hope of breaking even.
Star Daniel Craig’s last big-screen outing in “Specter” in 2015 grossed $ 880 million worldwide, while 2012’s “Skyfall” grossed $ 1.1 billion. So far, only one Hollywood movie – Universal’s “F9: The Fast Saga” ($ 704 million) – has managed to break the $ 500 million mark at the global box office amid the pandemic. For “No Time to Die”, that would be a catastrophic result. MGM, however, remains adamant that the film will retain its October 8 release date.
“How can MGM not worry? Much of his profit is tied to Bond, ”Handler explains. “They can’t afford for it not to work out well. “
Sony’s slate, especially its October sequel “Venom”, looks just as unstable. Sony is the only major studio that doesn’t have its own streaming service, so it has spent much of the pandemic licensing its movies to digital players like Netflix and Amazon. The first “Venom”, starring Tom Hardy as the journalist-turned-alien symbiote, made a 2018 murder overseas, with nearly $ 650 million of its worldwide total of $ 856 million coming from the box -international office. Today, Hardy’s mumbling antihero would have a hard time replicating those ticket sales, especially since most Hollywood movies don’t have a release date in China. “Ghostbusters: Afterlife,” which takes place three decades after the original, could also be moved from late November to next year with little impact. The hope is that at the end of December, when Tom Holland reprizes his role in “Spider Man: No Way Home”, the box office will be more stable and parents will feel comfortable taking the family to the local multiplex.
As for the other big comic book property of the year, sources say that Disney has two to three weeks to make a decision on plans for “Eternals,” the upcoming Marvel film directed by the winner of an award. Oscar Chloe Zhao and starring Angelina Jolie, Gemma Chan, Kit Harington, Richard Madden and Kumail Nanjiani. The studio has been curiously vague as to whether or not the comic book adaptation will play exclusively in theaters, like “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” or have a hybrid release on Disney Plus, like “Black. Widow “. Across the industry, “Shang-Chi” will be taking a close look this weekend to see how the blockbuster hopeful performs on the big screen.
Early follow-up points to a start of around $ 45-55 million in its first three days of release, which would set a Labor Day weekend record but rank among the lowest debuts on record for a Marvel movie. But, putting “Black Widow” simultaneously on Disney Plus caused a lot of drama (and resulted in a big drop on Weekend Two) that could be avoided with an exclusive theatrical window for “Eternals”. Is that enough for the studio to forgo the potential millions of digital downloads and new subscribers?
With “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Jackass Forever,” the latest installment in the shock comedy franchise starring Johnny Knoxville and Steve-O, postponed until next year, Paramount has no movies to release until. that “Scream” opens on January 1st. 14, 2022 – leaving his recently released children’s film “PAW Patrol” to do the heavy lifting.
That leaves Universal, the studio that struck a deal with movie theater owners last year to shorten the movie theater window and bring movies home faster. One of his upcoming films, which features “Sing 2” in addition to “Halloween Kills” and “Dear Evan Hansen,” could follow the release model of “The Boss Baby: Family Business,” the animated sequel that has premiered simultaneously in theaters and on Peacock, the streaming service owned by NBCUniversal. But for the most part, Universal’s pact with chains, such as AMC and Cinemark, has given it enough cushion if box office revenue falls short.
For many theater operators, the lingering sense of uncertainty about where and when new films will be released is nothing new. But that doesn’t make the reality any less devastating.
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