Tracking occasional scattered rain and thunder through Friday

Hit or miss.

Our weather forecast will be a bit of both until Friday through part of Saturday. Occasional, patchy rain and thunder will appear around a weak low through Friday and Saturday. I expect more dry hours than rain anywhere in Minnesota, but most of us will be wet at some point.

Rainfall monitoring

NOAA’s GFS pattern is typical of patterns that drive a slow low pressure system across Minnesota through Saturday. Patchy rain will generally move northeast through Friday. Showers are likely to be less numerous on Saturday as the system moves east through Wisconsin.

Much of Minnesota looks likely to recover between 0.25 “and 0.75” by Saturday. But there could be a band of locally heavier precipitation in central Minnesota, with 1 “or more in some places. Here’s another look at the release of the European model.

Sunday the brightest day this weekend

Clouds and a few intermittent showers persist on Saturday. Sunday brings the sunniest day this weekend. The peaks are expected to be in the 60s to 70s around Minnesota.

Even sweeter than average next week

The first full week of October in Minnesota is shaping up to be very pleasant. The sky is generally sunny to partly cloudy. Highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average next week with 60 degrees northeast and 70 degrees south and west.

Warmer than average temperatures are favored on the outlook until mid-October.