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A tropical system heading towards the Gulf of Mexico has an 80% chance of developing into at least one tropical depression, hurricane forecasters said Wednesday morning.
It’s too early to say if the storm could pose a threat to Louisiana, but some long-range forecasting models predict it will hit the Gulf Coast. However, long-range models change often, especially so far away.
The disturbance is one of three systems forecasters track in the Caribbean and the Atlantic. The next available name is Ida if one of the systems reaches tropical storm status.
The shaded area on the graph is where a storm could develop and is not a trail. The National Hurricane Center clears a runway when a tropical depression forms or is about to form.
Here’s what to know about the tropics as of 7 a.m. Wednesday from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical system in the Caribbean
image via National Hurricane Center
Hurricane forecasters are tracking a tropical disturbance heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.
At 7 a.m. on Wednesday, there is a tropical wave over Colombia and the Caribbean, and forecasters have said a low pressure is expected to form from this disturbance in the coming days.
It has an 80% chance of transforming into a tropical depression within five days.
Where is the system going?
image via South Florida Water Management District
The disturbance is expected to move northwest through the Caribbean, across the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, and then into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
Conditions could be favorable for further development once the system reaches the Gulf, forecasters said.
It is too early to tell where the system might go once it arrives in the Gulf of Mexico. Some of the long-range forecasting models made it landfall in Louisiana, but forecasters from the National Weather Service in Slidell said the path was “still very uncertain.”
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“As this system has not yet developed, confidence in the impacts and trajectory of the forecast is low,” Gavin Phillips, meteorologist at Slidell’s National Weather Service, wrote Wednesday morning.
Residents should watch for the storm, he advised.
If the models are correct and the system heads towards the Gulf Coast, Phillips wrote, weather-related impacts would not reach the region for five to seven days.
Disturbance in the Atlantic
image via National Hurricane Center
A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or this weekend over the Atlantic, forecasters say.
At 7 a.m., a low pressure system was located about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda. It is moving northwest and is expected to turn east later this week.
Few developments are expected in the coming days, forecasters said, but environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable later this week.
It has an 80% chance of developing into at least one tropical depression within five days.
Disturbance by the Cabo Verde Islands
image via National Hurricane Center
Forecasters are tracking a tropical wave about several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
This produces a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, they said.
Some development is possible over the next few days, forecasters said, as it moves northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 mph. It has a 30% chance of developing into at least one tropical depression within five days.
Weather conditions should become less conducive to development by the weekend.
Read the full outlook.
Next name available
The hurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs from June 1 to November 30, but storms can develop at any time.
The next available storm names are Ida, Julian, and Kate. Systems are named when they strengthen in tropical storms.
Tropical storms Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace and Henri formed earlier this season. Elsa became the first hurricane of the season and Grace became the second.
Claudette grew in the Gulf of Mexico and poured several inches of rain on Slidell, inundating homes and streets.
Last year’s hurricane season broke several records, including one for the most named storms on record.
Last year there were so many storms that forecasters ran out of names and had to use the Greek alphabet. This is only the second time in recorded history that Greek names have been used.
Things have changed for this season. If necessary, forecasters will use a list of additional storm names instead of the Greek names.
Tips for preparing for hurricane season
Home Depot supervisor Arnaldo Gonzalez loads water bottles into Elena Arvalo’s cart as shoppers prepare for the tropical climate in Miami on Saturday, July 3, 2021 (Al Diaz / Miami Herald via AP)
Forecasters say now is the time to review hurricane plans and make sure your property is prepared for hurricane season. Here are some tips from the National Weather Service to prepare for the season:
- Build an emergency kit.
- Check emergency equipment, such as flashlights, generators, and storm shutters.
- Before an emergency happens, make a plan with your family or close friends and decide how to contact you and where you will go in the event of an emergency.
- Plan your escape route and have an alternate route.
- Review your insurance policies.
- Keep your trees around your house pruned to avoid damage from broken branches.
- Provide materials on the edge of the windows to protect them from flying debris.
See more tips.
Storm categories
The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane (categories 1 to 5).
On the Hurricane Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, the wind categories are:
- Tropical storm: 39 to 73 mph
- Category 1 hurricane: 74 to 95 mph
- Category 2 hurricane: 96 to 110 mph
- Category 3 hurricane (major hurricane): 111 to 129 mph
- Category 4 hurricane: 130-156 mph
- Category 5 hurricane: 157 mph and above
Don’t miss a storm update this hurricane season. Sign up for last minute newsletters. Follow our Hurricane Center Facebook page.
Carlie Kollath Wells is Morning Reporter for NOLA.com and The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans lawyer.
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