Trump leaves behind a decrease in the GOP

The challenge with pulling out these groups is not a lack of money, given that the GOP broke spending records in 2020, and in interviews with a dozen high-level strategists, some noted that fewer groups can lead a more coordinated message. But others said that the number of institutions and centers of power were shrinking could speak directly to voters, help steer the Republican Party, and try out different strategies and messages to help it win again. . Top Republicans expect the GOP’s minority status to spur innovation and germinate new groups, but they start 2021 with fewer options than the last time the party faced the political desert.

“Looking back on the 2010 cycle, there was a flurry of outside bands that entered the scene. This is just not the case now. Fundraising, campaigning organizations and outside groups have evolved dramatically, ”said Ken Spain, who was spokesperson for the Republican National Committee of Congress in 2010, when Republicans regained a majority in the House. “As the tectonic plates shifted within the Republican Party, the wider campaign apparatus has atrophied, and that includes some groups that are withdrawing or completely by the wayside.”

Brian O. Walsh, who led a pro-Trump super PAC in 2020 and coordinated the GOP’s external spending for years, said “consolidation isn’t necessarily a bad thing with fewer cooks in the kitchen.” . But a downside, he added, is that “the ecosystem has shrunk, [and] it means that the number of different, important and respected political brands, from the Kochs to the House, are not there to carry the message for you.

“There is just no one else there now,” said a senior Republican strategist, who has worked with the GOP campaign committees and requested anonymity to discuss the matter frankly. The person added: “The numbers are strong and we have fewer groups.”

Trump’s influence on the party – and his personality-driven political approach – naturally covered up some of the missing pieces for several years. But Trump is leaving the White House less popular than ever and with intra-party settling in mind more than party building.

“When you are the party in power you become less innovative, more dependent on the status quo and with Trump in power, it happened on steroids,” Spain said.

Senate Leadership Fund Chairman Steven Law said that while “fewer groups have been involved” in recent years, the “intensity and ferocity” of the activity of outside groups has only helped. “increase”. This is clearly seen in SLF’s independent spending, reaching historic highs during the 2020 cycle.

“As other groups shrank, we worked hard to fill a void,” Law said.

It is also “a natural evolution and maturation” of the political landscape, said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with the leadership of the House GOP. “Ten years ago, it was the Wild West,” he says. “Today, CLF has gone from being the biggest spender to the biggest spender due to a very consistent and demonstrable record of success.”

A small group of actors is not the only thing that has changed in the ecosystem of conservative groups. Small donors have become increasingly important to both parties, making it easier to access a grassroots donation network. During the 2020 cycle, Republicans have sought to catch up with Democrats in online fundraising by focusing on driving supporters to WinRed, a fundraising platform that processed $ 2 billion in the last cycle. , who still lags far behind online fundraising for Democratic candidates.

Earlier this month, PACs and business executives expressed concern, with some suspending or halting their political donations, after 147 Congressional Republicans voted against certification of electoral college results. (It’s not yet clear how long these bans could last.) And megadonor Sheldon Adelson, one of the GOP’s biggest funders in recent years, passed away earlier this month.

Several Republicans have likened this moment to the run-up to the 2010 midterm election, when Republicans, spurred on by Democratic full control over Washington after President Barack Obama was elected in 2008, led to a new wave of activities of mega-donors and to groups that relied on Tea Party activism.

“I think you’ll see new activity on a variety of fronts – perhaps not the ones you’ve seen before – but in an organic response to what I think is a fairly liberal and aggressive agenda put forward by the new administration.” Law said, citing groups like Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion group, as a potential new player. “Having more players involved is good, and I think we’ll see more in a year where people are more naturally engaged.”

In the early months of the Biden administration, Republicans also said they were eager to embrace Democratic policies to boost donors and activism.

“We are all post-Trump now, and we need to understand what this universe looks like,” said a Republican adviser and strategist. “The new ecosystem will be a contest of ideas for the GOP megadonors, and they all have to decide, what kind of ecosystem do you want?”

But for groups that once played a pivotal role in the GOP takeovers in 2010 and 2014, it is less clear that it will be involved in party formation and support in 2021. For example, the House of American commerce was once ranked among the top 10 spending outside groups in the 2012 and 2014 elections, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, mostly supporting Republicans. But the House spent just $ 10.9 million on independent spending in 2018 and $ 5.7 million in 2020, after approving a bipartisan slate of candidates in 2020.

The US Chamber of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.

Americans for Prosperity, the political and popular arm of the Koch Network, has been actively involved in hundreds of state and federal campaigns through his extensive campaigning on the ground in 2020, but he notably stayed out of the presidential race. AFP CEO Emily Seidel wrote a note in 2019 that AFP would support incumbents of any political party, including Democrats, “who lead by uniting,” while criticizing politicians who ” favor partisanship over political results ”. And in the Georgia Senate runoff, AFP knocked over 800,000 doors for Senator David Perdue, but not for Senator Kelly Loeffler, two Republicans who both lost their bid in January.

In an interview in November, billionaire Charles Koch said he “cared deeply about George Washington’s farewell speech, where he said, ‘Beware of political parties,'” The Washington Post reported. And last week, the Koch Network told POLITICO it would “weigh heavily” on the actions of members of Congress leading up to the January 6, 2021 insurgency, “in our assessment of future support.”

A person with knowledge of the Koch Network, who was granted anonymity to discuss the matter frankly, said Trump was “pulling out traditional blue-collar Democrats who voted for him, while sending Republicans, especially suburban Republicans , to the Democratic Party ”, and“ This change, this realignment, is also reflected in the outside world of spending ”, including for the Koch network.

The NRA is also still involved in GOP politics, able to tap into its vast network of members to support candidates. But he is currently facing a series of internal issues, ranging from a public break with his former president in 2019 to the declaration of bankruptcy in New York last week and the announcement of his re-establishment in Texas.

In the last round, Republicans and Trump campaign officials have sounded the alarm bells on the NRA, calling the group deeply diminished and worrying that its internal challenges – including an investigation by the Attorney General’s office of the State of New York on its tax-exempt status – would hamper its campaign efforts.

In 2020, the NRA fell among the top 20 outside spenders, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, after maintaining membership in this group for several cycles. But the NRA spent $ 30 million on TV and digital ads, and recruited volunteers in eight states. The group also spent $ 5 million on the Georgia Senate second-round, crucial seats Republicans failed to hold in January 2021.

The NRA said that “money is an often ineffective measure of power in politics. [and] what matters are the results, “and it” has been endorsed in dozens of competitive races across the country and 87 percent of our candidates have prevailed at the federal and state levels, “said Amy Hunter, a gate- keeper. The NRA said in a statement. “There are millions of new gun owners in America who will vote their rights in 2022.”