Trump Luneshot: The next giant leap or another empty promise?

The announcement – which resulted in a lunar landing of at least four years – surprised many people at NASA and left a private funding body for such missions with a serious case of whiplash, seeking to determine how he would face the last White House. mandate within the limits of its reduced budget.

NASA officials are also facing a major test of the effectiveness of their agency: is there any other promise in the air on the part of one? Nostalgic government of the triumph of Apollo and his willingness to make waves as president, or can NASA take a bold step? time for the presidential election?

Already there are signs that the White House's plan is coming up against strong winds.

At a hearing on Tuesday, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Tex.), Chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, criticized Pence's speech, which n & # 39; 39 provided no details on how NASA could achieve what it called an "accident program". or what it would cost.

"We need details, no rhetoric," she said. "Because rhetoric that is not supported by a concrete plan and credible cost estimates is just hot air. And the hot air can be useful in ballooning, but it will not take us to the moon or Mars. "

Before Pence's speech, NASA hoped to send humans to the moon by 2028 at the earliest. The White House's own budget request, released a few weeks ago, was targeting a crewed lunar landing by the end of the next decade, which many NASA leaders saw as a more reasonable goal. . But the White House suddenly changed course and decided that the schedule was too long – and that it would be outside Trump's second term, if he were to be re-elected.

Others, too, had criticized the date of 2028, including former NASA administrator Michael Griffin, who had called a visit to the moon so late "that did not deserve to be on the table. Such a date does not demonstrate that the United States is a leader in anything. "

In recent weeks, the White House had made it clear to NASA's administrator, Jim Bridenstine, that she wanted NASA to act more quickly and asked him to make it happen by then. 2024. He had told the authorities of the administration that he could do it. "They were consistent in their desire to speed up," he said in a brief interview after appearing before the congressional hearing on Tuesday.

But, as a sign of the swiftness with which he must pivot, his written testimony for the audience cites the old chronology, vowing to "land men on the moon in a decade", and not the five years desired by the White House.

During the hearing, however, it became clear that NASA was struggling to speed up the moon's mission. Bridenstine said the plan was "changing" and would require additional funding. He promised to come back with an amendment to NASA's budget request later this month, but he would not or could not say how long NASA would need more.

"My concern is: what does the plan look like and what is the reality?", Said Representative Kendra Horn (D-Okla.), Chair of the Space Subcommittee, during the meeting. a meeting. She also expressed concern that "the pressure of schedules does not cure the security and the real problems that we will have to solve".

Major technical challenges are also waiting for us. The rocket that NASA plans to use to launch astronauts on the moon is so far behind the budget, that last month, Bridenstine threatened to dismiss it during his first mission in favor of commercial rockets .

This sparked a furor in Congress, particularly from Senator Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.), Chairman of the Credit Committee, and the rest of the Alabama delegation, where the program office NASA's rocket, known as the Space Launch System (SLS), is largely based.

Bridenstine quickly backed down, recommending SLS as the best option, and said Boeing, the main contractor for the rocket, would seek to speed up development considerably.

It's not just the rocket that needs to get back on track. The plans of NASA's current lunar mission call for the construction of a station that would orbit the moon permanently. The astronauts stopped at the station, known as the Gateway, before traveling on the lunar surface with special landers – an ambitious technological advance that did not exist when the Apollo astronauts landed a half-hour ago. century after a direct three-day trip.

The problem for NASA is that none of these architectures have been built or even contracted. And without a budget or congressional assurances that the program would be funded, many fear that the White House is preparing the agency for another failure.

"At first glance, this seems to be what we have experienced before: the presidents delivered a bold speech without additional resources," said Wayne Hale, former NASA space shuttle program officer, who is now a consultant. . "Where are the resources? We are waiting to see what will be proposed in the budget. "

Todd Harrison, a defense and space analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that now that the Trump administration has left its mark on the program, other white houses may well dismiss it.

"Before you know it, there will be a change of administration, and a new NASA administrator will step in and say," All these guys have done is totally wrong. "That's what history has told us in the last 30 years. to arrive, he says.

There is also deep skepticism within NASA. To allay concerns, Bridenstine held a public meeting on Monday and answered questions from employees. It was mentioned how different presidents directed NASA to different missions – the Moon, then Mars, then back to the Moon – without any of them being realized.

"What steps do you plan to take to reduce the programmatic thunderbolt that prevents us from actually realizing any of these big projects?" Asked an employee.

Others, however, find the new sense of urgency invigorating – and all that an aging bureaucracy like NASA needs. Trump reconstituted the National Council of Space to define the space policy of the United States. He pleaded for the creation of a Space Force, a new military wing dedicated to helping the United States fight their opponents in space.

Pence has devoted more time to space than any other senior White House official since the Kennedy administration. His associates said his passion was real, as was his belief that the agency can land humans on the Moon by 2024.

In his March 26 speech, Pence described the mission as part of a new space race against superpowers such as China and Russia, seeking to get water to the South Pole. of the moon, which could serve not only to maintain human life, but also to fuel the rockets. push further into the solar system. Water, as many have said, is the oil of the solar system.

"It's not just the competition against our opponents," Pence said. "We are also running against our worst enemy: complacency."

Over the years, critics have criticized NASA for having lost the boldness that defined it in its infancy, curbed by two space shuttle disasters that killed 14 astronauts. In 1969, NASA sent men to the moon, 250,000 km away. Today, his astronauts travel to the International Space Station, 250 km away. And since NASA did not have the capacity to transport humans into space since the withdrawal of the country's space shuttle fleet in 2011, its astronauts flew on Russian rockets at a cost of more than $ 80 million per year. seat.

China, meanwhile, has become a rival in space. Earlier this year, it became the first country to land on a satellite, on the other side of the moon. He plans to send another unprepared mission to the moon later this year. At the same time, said Pence in his speech, China has "revealed its ambition to seize the strategic heights of the moon and become the most important country of space in the world".

Part of what drives the planet to the moon is the unproven dream that a lucrative business can be created by exploiting precious metals just beneath its surface. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, said that lunar mining could help fuel a trillion – dollar space economy.

Homer Hickam, NASA's long-time author and engineer who plays the role of advisor to the council of space, said the agency should seize this opportunity.

"It does not happen often that the Vice President, or anyone at this level, is so interested in NASA and spaceflight," he said.