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RALEIGH, North Carolina (AP) –
North Carolina Democrats hoped in November they would break the backs of Republicans, who, after dominating state politics for much of the past decade, saw their power eroded in the 2016 election. and 2018.
Instead, state Democrats had little to brag about after election day beyond Gov. Roy Cooper’s near but expected re-election, a narrow victory for Attorney General Josh Stein and the selection of two seats in the United States House largely allocated to them by the redistribution in 2019.
President Donald Trump, though defeated nationally, again won North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes. US Senator Thom Tillis won a second term against Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, whose recognition in the campaign’s final weeks of an extramarital affair derailed a potential upheaval. Republicans retained eight seats in Congress and six positions in the Council of State. They’ll sweep all eight races out of the state court of appeals if Paul Newby stays before Chief Justice Cheri Beasley after a recount and legal protests.
And the Democrats’ multi-million dollar effort to take control of the state legislature before the next round of redistribution begins in 2021 has failed, with the GOP effectively securing more seats in the General Assembly.
“It was a great day to be a Republican here in North Carolina,” said GOP Chairman Michael Whatley.
Democrats largely blame the extinction on the huge turnout from Republicans committed to Trump, who beat Joe Biden by just 1.3 percentage points.
As the statewide turnout surpassed 75%, a record in recent North Carolina history, Republicans won the ballot from the top down in all but one county, including one. the turnout topped 80%, according to data from the State Board of Elections. This has helped the GOP counter the democratic advantages that have manifested themselves in urban counties and through the postal vote.
“Ultimately, it’s Trump’s ability to motivate rural North Carolina to come out and vote in record numbers,” said Morgan Jackson, consultant for the Cooper and Cunningham campaigns. Jackson said Cunningham’s “personal issues” over the past month have helped change the course of this race. And he said Democrats were unable to conduct strong traditional vote-exit operations because party members were less willing to knock on doors for fear of the COVID-19 pandemic.
GOP activists, meanwhile, have knocked on 3 million doors, according to Whatley. They were complemented by outside advocacy groups like Americans For Prosperity, whose campaign arm worked on behalf of some Republican candidates using data to identify voters who they believed supported conservative views on the economy, COVID-19 assistance and access to health care.
“We surgically targeted voters based on their perspective on political issues,” said Chris McCoy, state director of the group. Americans for Prosperity staff and volunteers knocked on 126,000 doors in the Triangle and Charlotte.
Whatley said Trump’s mass rallies in North Carolina in the last few weeks of the campaign, as well as visits by Vice President Mike Pence and members of the Trump family, also contributed to GOP enthusiasm. with early in-person voting and on election day. Biden, meanwhile, has not visited North Carolina in the last 16 days of the campaign. State Democratic Party Chairman Wayne Goodwin believes his party’s candidates acted responsibly by not holding big events that threatened the spread of the coronavirus, unlike Trump.
“We would all have preferred to campaign in the style that we are used to in a presidential year and I think that certainly could have made an impact,” Goodwin said. “But at the end of the day, if we got hypocritical and ended up having some super-propagating events, then I don’t think anyone would sleep well at night.
Some Republicans, especially legislative leaders, have attributed the electoral success to their legislative agenda of the past decade, including lowering taxes, expanding educational choice opportunities for K-12 students, and increased funding for education.
“These are policies that are widely popular, even among groups that traditionally do not support Republicans,” said Senate Leader Phil Berger. Democrats in major legislative races have attempted to make GOP opposition to the expansion of Medicaid the central issue of their campaigns, repeating a successful 2018 strategy.
Democrats see a silver lining with increased margins for their candidates over 2016 in urban counties already dominated by their party, as well as reduced GOP voting benefits in suburban counties like Gaston, Union and Johnston. Population shifts will likely mean creating more legislative and congressional seats in areas that favor Democrat redistribution in 2021.
“The (2020) is going to be a decade of trench warfare,” veteran Democratic consultant Gary Pearce said. “Neither side is really in a position to gain full control of the government.”
Democratic strategists are also hoping that GOP turnout will decline when Trump is not on the ballot.
“Trump’s supporters are enraged for him,” said Thomas Mills, a Democratic consultant who worked with congressional candidate Patricia Timmons-Goodson. “I don’t think they’re Republicans. I think they’re going to find out that in four years, in two years, these people won’t show up.
Part of it will be up to local Republican leaders to keep novice and sporadic voters involved in future elections. In GOP-dominated Alexander County 105 kilometers north of Charlotte, party chairman Jack Simms said 137 people had come to party headquarters to register to vote for the first time or change membership in a party, often democratic. In previous elections, the county’s GOP could get 25 of those registrations.
“I don’t think we’ll ever see a more energetic election like we just witnessed,” Simms said. Can it be repeated? He replied, “It depends on who will be racing in the future.”
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Follow Robertson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/garydrobertson and Anderson at https://twitter.com/bryanranderson.
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Anderson is a member of the Associated Press / Report for America Statehouse News Initiative corps. Report for America is a national, nonprofit service program that places reporters in local newsrooms to report on secret issues.
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