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Epidemiologists from some of the world’s leading academic institutions today issued a stern warning of the risk the world is taking by not ensuring that all countries have enough vaccines to protect people from COVID-19. In a survey of 77 epidemiologists from 28 countries, conducted by The People’s Vaccine Alliance, two-thirds believed we had a year or less before the virus mutates as the majority of first-generation vaccines are released. ineffective and new or modified vaccines are needed. Of those surveyed, almost a third gave a deadline of nine months or less. Less than one in eight said they believed mutations would never make current vaccines ineffective.
The overwhelming majority – 88% – said that persistent low vaccine coverage in many countries would make the emergence of vaccine-resistant mutations more likely.
The People’s Vaccine Alliance, a coalition of more than 50 organizations including the African Alliance, Oxfam, Public Citizen and UNAIDS, warned that at current rates, it was likely that only 10% of people in the majority of poor countries will be vaccinated next year. .
Almost three-quarters of those surveyed – which included epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists from institutions such as Johns Hopkins, Yale, Imperial College, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of Cambridge , University of Edinburgh and University of Cape Town – said open sharing of technology and intellectual property could increase global immunization coverage. The People’s Vaccine Alliance calls for the lifting of pharmaceutical monopolies and the sharing of technology to urgently increase vaccine supply.
Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, said: “The more the virus circulates, the more likely it is that mutations and variants will emerge, which could make our current vaccines ineffective. At the same time, poor countries are left behind without vaccines and basic medical supplies like oxygen.
“As we’ve learned, viruses don’t care about borders. We need to immunize as many people as possible, all over the world, as quickly as possible. Why wait and watch instead of getting ahead? “
Although he did not specify a timeline, Gregg Gonsalves, associate professor of epidemiology at Yale University, echoed the urgency to vaccinate globally. Gonsalves said: “With millions of people around the world infected with this virus, new mutations are occurring every day. Sometimes they find a niche that makes them fitter than their predecessors. These lucky variants could more efficiently transmit and potentially evade immune responses to previous strains. Unless we vaccinate the world, we are leaving the playing field open to more and more mutations, which could produce variants that could escape our current vaccines and require booster shots to cope.
“We all have a personal interest in ensuring that everyone in the world, regardless of where they live, has access to COVID-19 vaccines. The virus doesn’t respect borders, and new variants somewhere on the planet mean none of us are safe. “
Quarraisha Abdool Karim, Associate Scientific Director of CAPRISA and Professor of Clinical Epidemiology at Columbia University, said: “As nations begin to expand their immunization programs, we are once again reminded of our interdependence. High coverage rates and herd immunity in one country or region of the world while others, especially low- and middle-income countries, continue to queue, will create the perfect environment for the virus to continue. mutate and negate the benefits of any vaccine. protection.
“On the other hand, there are huge benefits for everyone in having more equitable access to available vaccine doses and in achieving collective immunity earlier in the world. As scientists, advocates and policy makers, we need to ensure that as many people are vaccinated around the world and as quickly as possible so that we can all focus our efforts on rebuilding our communities, our livelihoods and of our savings and knowing that we all are. safe from COVID-19 and be better prepared for the next pandemic. “
The survey shows that it is imperative for the safety of all citizens of all countries that people in developing countries be vaccinated as soon as possible. Failure to address global vaccine inequality increases the risk of new mutations.
Despite this imperative, the defense by rich countries of the monopolies of the pharmaceutical giants means that global supplies are artificially rationed, with a handful of companies deciding who lives and who dies. Earlier this month, rich countries blocked a proposal to waive intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines. The People’s Vaccine Alliance is urging them to reconsider resuming talks at the World Trade Organization in April.
The Alliance also calls on all pharmaceutical companies working on COVID-19 vaccines to openly share their technology and intellectual property through the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 technology access pool, in order to ” Accelerate and accelerate the production and deployment of vaccines for all countries.
Anna Marriott, Oxfam’s health policy manager, said: “In many wealthy countries, people who have been vaccinated are starting to feel safer, but unless all nations are vaccinated there is a huge risk that the protection offered by vaccines is destroyed by new mutations.
“This survey highlights that we need a popular vaccine, not only to protect people in the world’s poorest countries, but also to ensure that people around the world who have already been vaccinated are no longer being vaccinated. danger.”
Current vaccines appear to be at least partially effective against existing mutations, but when new vaccines are needed, it will take several months before they are approved for use and even longer to start rolling out. In the meantime, lockdowns and travel bans will continue to be the primary protections against rising infections and deaths. New vaccine recipes will also be subject to the same pharmaceutical monopolies, further restricting access for the rest of the world. Dr Mohga Kamal Yanni, Senior Health Policy Advisor to the People Vaccine Alliance, said: ‘If we were at war with a country called COVID, would governments leave vital decisions on production, supply? and the price in the hands of arms production companies?
“Since vaccines are our most crucial weapon in the fight against COVID-19, world leaders must take control to enable the World Health Organization’s COVID technology access pool to facilitate the sharing of technology and intellectual property so that all capable companies can maximize global vaccine production. “
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For more information or for interview requests contact Oxfam Media Unit on +44 (0) 7748 761999 / [email protected] or Sophie Bowell on +44 (0) 7810 814980 / [email protected]
Notes to Editors:
Of the 77 survey respondents:
66.2% think we had a year or less before the virus mutated as the majority of first generation vaccines are rendered ineffective (18.2% of them think we are 6 months or less and 32.5% say 9 months or less).
7.8% thought we would never see mutations that made current vaccines ineffective and new or modified vaccines were needed and an additional 7.8% did not feel comfortable putting in a time estimate. 18.2% thought we had 2 years or more before mutations made current vaccines ineffective and new or modified vaccines were needed.
74% said open sharing of technology and intellectual property could increase global immunization coverage. 23% said maybe and 3% said no.
88.3% said that persistent low vaccination coverage in many countries would increase the likelihood of developing vaccine-resistant mutations, 6.5% said no and 5.2% did not answer the question .
The survey was carried out between February 17 and March 25, 2021. Interviewees include epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease specialists from the following universities / institutions:
Aalborg University Hospital in Denmark, National Academy of Medicine in Paris, Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Amader Hospital India, AMREF International University in Kenya, Belgian Lung and Tuberculosis Association, Cambridge University, Center for Family Health Research in Zambia, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention in South Sudan, Center for Infections Disease research Zambia, Columbia University USA, Complutense University in Madrid, Danish Medical Association, University of Montreal School of Public Health, Emory University USA, Forum for Ethical Review Committee in India, fundacion huesped in Argentina, Georgetown USA, Good Clinical Practice Alliance – Europe (GCPA), Hamdard University in India, Ibn Sina Academy of Medicine and Sciences in India, Imperial College London, Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine USA, ISPG – Instituto Superior Politecnico de Gaza, Johns Hopkins University USA, Johnson & Johnson, Kab ale U University in Uganda, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Lebanese University, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Makerere University in Uganda, Movement for Community-led Development, Mpilonhle in South Africa, National Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani in Italy, National Research Ethics Board of Trustees / PREVAIL in Liberia, OTRANS-RN in Guatemala, University of Oxford Clinical Research Unit in Vietnam, Portland State University School of Public Health in USA, St. Luke Medical Center in the Philippines, Tufts University in the United States, University College London UK, University College London Institute for Global Health UK, University of Cape Town, Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc in Belgium, University of the East Ramon Magsaysay in Philippines, UK Emergency Medical Team, Unicamillus International University of Medical Science in Italy, Union of Junior Doctors in Denmark, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel Ren e Moreno in Bolivia, Universidad Nacional del Litoral in Argentina, University of Cambridge UK, University of Cape Town in South Africa, University of Edinburgh UK, University of Maryland USA, University of Oxford, University of Pretoria in South Africa, University of Southern Denmark, University of Zimbabwe, University of Zambia, Walter Sisulu University in South Africa, World Health Organization in India, Wits University in South Africa and Yale School of Public Health USA.
Respondents came from the following 28 countries: South Africa, Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Bolivia, Canada, Denmark, Ethiopia, France, Guatemala, India, Italy, Kenya, Lebanon, Norway, Philippines, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan South. , Spain, United Arab Emirates, Uganda, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
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