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A sharp rise in COVID-19 infections in Alabama this week has warned an expert of a “tidal wave” of cases that could overwhelm state hospitals.
No hospital has yet reported a shortage of beds or staff, although hospital admissions have reached record levels this week. But Dr Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the division of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said the sharp increase in recent days could be the start of a substantial spike.
“We are now entering the holiday season and we could really be in a situation in the next two to three weeks that compromises our ability to provide health care,” said Marrazzo. “We have been very careful not to use alarmist terminology. We have been very careful to always try to be scientifically accurate in our communications. But I think this is the time when we need to start thinking about tidal wave imagery, tsunami imagery.
UAB and Huntsville hospitals both set new records this week for the number of patients receiving treatment for COVID at the hospital. UAB spokesperson Savannah Koplon said the hospital was still able to accommodate all patients, but would make changes to provide more resources for COVID care if needed. Intensive care units in parts of the state have already started to fill up, Marrazzo said.
“If you look at our ICU bed situation right now in Alabama, it’s not particularly optimistic,” Marrazzo said.
Numbers at the start of the week do not yet include many Thanksgiving cases. Marrazzo said she expects these patients to appear ten to 14 days after the holidays. The number of new cases in Alabama has been rising for weeks and continued its upward trend on Tuesday.
If hospitals are overwhelmed, health officials may need to create temporary COVID care areas similar to field hospitals erected during the initial spring outbreak, Marrazzo said.
Hospitals are already struggling to maintain staff as employees increasingly test positive for the virus. Alabama could seek federal assistance, but could compete with many other states that are also experiencing flare-ups.
“One could imagine a real need to put in place auxiliary care places in three weeks,” said Marrazzo. “I hope that doesn’t happen. Are we looking at the kind of situation New York experienced in March? Again, it depends. It all depends on what happened over Thanksgiving weekend.
Marrazzo said the Alabamians could improve the outlook for the end of December by avoiding rallies, wearing masks and washing their hands.
“It doesn’t seem like we can affect what’s going to happen in the next two or three weeks after Thanksgiving,” Marrazzo said. “But we can have an impact on what happens around Christmas and after that.”
People in Alabama and across the country know what they need to do to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, Marrazzo said, but some have simply let their guard down after months of isolation. People who miss family and friends began to take risks.
“We just have to keep presenting the facts to people,” Marrazzo said. “Call on their best natures. Appeal to their community spirit and just implore them to help us get through the next few months until we can truly get enough vaccines to help protect people for the rest of the year.
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