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Mackenzie Dern has been soaring to stardom since switching from jiu-jitsu to MMA and will move one step closer to champion status with a win on Saturday.
Opposite her in the main event of UFC Vegas 39 is strawweight contender Marina Rodriguez, who didn’t get quite the same hype as Dern, but has delivered time and time again in the cage with wins over Michelle Waterson, Amanda Ribas and Tecia Torres. Rodriguez’s only loss is a split appeal against Carla Esparza, and if Rodriguez had withdrawn the decision there, she could already be in line to compete for a UFC title.
As it stands, even with a win, both women still have to navigate the 115-pound minefield that includes Esparza and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, potentially hampering a meeting with rematch winner Rose Namajunas-Zhang Weili in November. Dern has the notoriety advantage over Rodriguez, and if she pulled off another spectacular submission and followed up with a solid post-fight promotion, you can bet the UFC will have no problem pushing her to the fore. .
In another main card action, a disgruntled Randy Brown takes on Jared Gooden in a catch-weight bout after Gooden misses the three-pound welterweight limit, flyweight veteran Tim Elliott looks to stop the streak Matheus Nicolau, Sabina Mazo takes on Mariya Agapova in an outlook flyweight battle, and Chris Gutierrez meets Felipe Colares in what should be a fan-friendly bantamweight drop.
What: UFC Vegas 39
Or: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday October 9. The four-fight preliminary card starts on ESPN + at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card on ESPN + at 4 p.m. ET.
(The numbers in parentheses indicate that you are World ranking of MMA fights)
Mackenzie Dern (4) vs. Marina Rodriguez (5)
Count me as one of those over-enthusiastic people on the hype Mackenzie Dern train.
Maybe I’m trying too hard to anoint someone like the next Demian Maia (I just miss seeing him fight so much), but Dern having an A-more skill that few women in the world can match does. ‘she a problem for anyone in the strawweight division. This skill being her wrestling, of course, which made her a star in the competitive world of jiu-jitsu before she turned 25. If Dern’s eliminations have improved, Marina Rodriguez could have a short night.
Where one would be concerned with Dern is his gas tank. If she doesn’t take Rodriguez down early or if Rodriguez is able to defend himself well enough in the first two rounds to let Dern tire out, then the last three rounds of the fight should favor Rodriguez. She’s the top attacker and she has a five-round fight under her belt, which will be invaluable if she finds herself in other main events in the future. We don’t yet know if Dern can have a tough 25 minutes.
Dern’s selection is based mainly on the belief that she will put Rodriguez on the behind at some point in the first or second round and find the finish once there. This is Dern’s toughest test yet, and while I’m accompanying him to get the submission, it could easily be an impressive decision-making victory for Rodriguez and another great learning time for Dern.
To take: Ders
Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden
Randy Brown finds himself in a difficult situation.
Not only does he fight an opponent with knockout power, Jared Gooden also lacked weight for the fight a lot and he has more to gain with a win here. Brown’s last three wins have come against Alex Oliveira, Warlley Alves and Bryan Barberena, so it’s strange to see him having to take a step back from the competition here.
Brown won’t forget Gooden, so he should have no problem staying on the winning track. He has great speed and tall stature, is creative on the feet, and he has a nose for finishing. Brown needs to be aggressive with Gooden, a fighter who thrives when he is able to set the pace.
Give me Brown who injures Gooden in the feet and ends up with a choke when Gooden shoots to try to slow the action down.
To take: Brown
Tim Elliott (15) v Matheus Nicolau (T9)
Tim Elliott is the perfect match for Matheus Nicolau at this point in the Brazilian’s career. He’s going to sink or swim on Saturday night for Nicolau and if he’s not prepared for the relentless wrestling pressure from Elliott, he could become the next victim of Elliott’s awkward and inimitable style.
As much respect as I have for Elliott’s engine, Nicolau is also a great grappler in his own right. We could be in entertaining scuffles, but I just as likely see Nicolau having an answer for every spin Elliott has on the mat. While it takes a turn for the young fighter to figure out Elliott, once he does, he’ll show why he’s one of the most overlooked talents at 125 pounds.
Nicolau has the advantage of hitting, regardless as it will be above all a fight on the ground. We’ve seen Elliott’s assault get him in trouble at times and that’s what I see happening here, as Nicolau will eventually catch him with a submission.
To take: Nicolau
Sabina Mazo versus. Maria agapova
We learned a lot about Mariya Agapova the last time we saw her, 14 months ago. Unfortunately, much of it was not good. As physically gifted and talented as the Kazakh fighter clearly is, she fell into a predictable trap in which she emptied her gas tank for a quick finish and found herself with nothing after the first round. On the positive side, it seems like a fixable habit.
Sabina Mazo doesn’t have as many course corrections to make. Yes, she had a three-game winning streak in February, but that was against a much more experienced fighter in Alexis Davis and in a weight class she isn’t supposed to compete in at the moment. Before that, the slender Colombian was starting to gather all the tools that made her one of the most promising candidates in the Legacy Fighting Alliance.
In this 24-year-old battle, I love Mazo if only because she faced and beat better competition. Agapova is a step behind the development curve, enough that I think Mazo not only takes the win here, but does it in style with the kind of whim that put her on the UFC radar. in the first place.
To take: Small
Chris Gutierrez vs. Colliers Felipe
I love this fight and I’m glad it moved to the main card after the Phil Hawes-Deron Winn-Chris Curtis scramble.
On the surface, this is a striker versus grappler clash, but Felipe Colares has shown a willingness to trade on his feet, which could play directly into Chris Gutierrez’s game plan. While Colares has raw power and uses his length well, he also mainly throws single strikes and gets sloppy when increasing his production.
Gutierrez is the opposite. Once he hits a good shot, all of his subsequent strikes become faster and sharper. He turns it on as well as anyone at 135 pounds and Colares’ less genteel strike won’t be enough to stop Gutierrez if it becomes a shootout.
All Gutierrez has to do is keep this one on his feet and he should be heading for victory.
To take: Gutierrez
Preliminaries
Alexander Romanov beat. Jared vanderaa
Charles Rosa def. Damon jackson
Lupita Godinez has beaten. Silvana Gomez Juárez
Steve Garcia beat. Charlie ontiveros
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