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LONDON (AP) – There is evidence that a new variant of coronavirus first identified in south-east England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the science adviser said on Friday chief of the UK government – although he pointed out that the data is uncertain
Patrick Vallance told a press conference that “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for every 1,000 people infected, about 10 will unfortunately die.”
“With the new variant, for every 1,000 people infected, we can expect around 13 or 14 people to die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and that more research is needed.
Contrary to that uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is more easily transmitted than the original strain of coronavirus. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transmissible.
Maria Van Kerkhove, World Health Organization technical officer on COVID-19, said studies were underway to examine the transmission and severity of the new virus variants.
She said so far “they haven’t seen an increase in severity” but that greater transmission could lead to “an overburdened health care system” and therefore more deaths.
Evidence that the new variant is deadlier is an article prepared by a group of scientists advising the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies.
Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that “the conclusion about this likely increase in lethality comes from analyzes carried out by several different groups, while working with essentially the same data”.
British officials say they are confident that vaccines approved for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists were concerned the variants identified in Brazil and South Africa were no longer resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needed to be done.
Concerns over the newly identified variants have triggered a slew of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to British travelers and the UK has halted flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said there may be other restrictions.
“We may have to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain has recorded 95,981 deaths among those testing positive for the coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
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