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A UK government science panel has claimed that a variant coronavirus with a 35% death rate – similar to that seen in Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) – could emerge, and that booster doses of the vaccine might be needed.
A report released on Friday by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) examined a series of hypothetical scenarios related to Covid-19 variants, finding it a “Realistic possibility” that a mutation could appear with a case fatality rate comparable to SARS (10%) or MERS (35%), both of which belong to the coronavirus family.
While the body said existing vaccines would remain effective against “serious illness” of such a variant, except in the case of “Significant drift” in the peak proteins of the virus, he nevertheless added that “an increase in morbidity and mortality would be expected even in the face of vaccination”, because inoculation does not “completely prevent infection in most people.”
The report suggested a number of ways to deal with a more deadly mutation, including “Booster doses of vaccine to maintain protection against serious disease” and measures to limit the introduction of new variants from abroad.
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SAGE also examined the likelihood of a variant that “Escapes current vaccines”, saying that it could happen in several ways. The most likely cause would be some form of genetic variation known as “Antigenic drift”, what happens when a virus mutates to a point where the antibodies that prevented infection from previous strains no longer work.
The panel considered that “almost certain” happen to some extent. A “worst case” The scenario described in the article could occur when a patient’s immune system was no longer able to produce antibodies for new variants, either due to past contact with the virus or due to “Vaccines already tested”. Such an apocalyptic scenario would make “difficult to revaccinate” patients, but the researchers concluded that the result was “Less likely”.
The same agency released a separate vaccine report on Friday, which found immunity is “highly probable” decrease over time, suggesting “There will be SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns for many years to come.“
However, the variant report also noted that the new coronavirus could follow an evolutionary path that sees it become more transmissible but less virulent, with SAGE drawing a comparison. with “common colds”. He added that although it is “Unlikely in the short term”, he could later become a “Realistic possibility” because the virus fully adapts to its human hosts.
SAGE concluded that the UK should continue to “Proactively support” a global vaccination campaign, claiming that it could help reduce the likelihood of “Dangerous variants are emerging in other parts of the world.” He also called for increased investment in viral surveillance to keep tabs on mutations.
To date, the UK has counted some 5.8 million coronavirus infections and just under 130,000 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University in the United States. While the country saw a lull in cases in the spring, summer brought a new spike, which officials attribute to the more contagious Delta variant first seen in India. Daily deaths have exceeded 100 on several occasions over the past week, also marking an increase from the spring tally, with new cases per day in the tens of thousands.
Despite the recent increase, however, the UK government has continued with its planned reopening earlier this month, lifting most of its Covid restrictions after imposing months of crippling lockdowns and business closures. Prime Minister Boris Johnson defended the move as necessary, but urged the British to exercise nonetheless “All the caution and respect for others and the risks that the disease continues to present. “
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