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The rapidly spreading “British variant” of the coronavirus could become the predominant strain in the United States by March, according to a new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
About 76 cases of the new variant, known as B.1.1.7, have been detected so far in 10 US states, but its ability to spread more easily than other variants means it could take off. quickly here, according to a new computer model. of the spread, detailed in a report Friday (January 15) in the CDC journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
Even though this variant of SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19) does not appear to cause more serious illness, its predicted rise is of particular concern as more cases overall means more hospitalizations and more of deceased.
Related: Fast-Spreading British Coronavirus Variant: All Your Questions Answered
The deployment of Vaccines against covid-19 will eventually dramatically reduce the transmission of COVID-19, but this will likely only happen after B.1.1.7 becomes the dominant variant, depending on the model.
In the meantime, “the increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could threaten strained health care resources, require prolonged and more rigorous implementation of public health strategies, and increase the percentage of immunity to population needed for control of the pandemic, ”the authors said.
To avoid the worst-case scenario, health officials once again find themselves insisting on the need to slow the spread of the virus, with masks, distancing and compliance with quarantines, which can mitigate the impact of B.1.1.7 and “allow critical time to increase immunization coverage,” the authors wrote.
In the new model, researchers assumed that B.1.1.7 currently has a prevalence of 0.5% in the United States among all COVID-19 infections, and that it is 50% more transmissible than the other variants. . The model also assumes that approximately 10% to 30% of the U.S. population is immune to COVID-19 due to past infections, and that approximately 1 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine are administered per day as of January 1, 2021 (as of January 15, approximately 11 million doses have been administered, or less than one million doses per day, According to the CDC.)
The model predicts that the prevalence of B.1.1.7 will increase rapidly in early 2021 and become the predominant variant in March, meaning that the majority of infections will come from this variant compared to others. In the model, vaccine deployment did not change the variant’s early trajectory, but started later and ultimately significantly reduced transmission.
The effect of vaccines on reducing transmission of COVID-19 in the short term was greatest when transmission was already declining, the authors said, further underscoring the importance of slowing the spread of the virus now.
These data show “that universal use and increased compliance with mitigation and immunization measures are essential to dramatically reduce the number of new cases and deaths in the months to come,” the authors said.
Increased efforts to monitor the course of SARS-CoV-2 and search for other variants of concern are also essential. The agency is currently working to strengthen its oversight in this area.
Originally posted on Live Science.
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