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There is evidence that a new variant of coronavirus first identified in the south-east of England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser said on Friday. – although he pointed out that the data is uncertain.
Patrick Vallance told a press conference that “there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man in his 60s with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for every 1,000 people infected, about 10 will unfortunately die.”
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“With the new variant, for every 1,000 people infected, we can expect around 13 or 14 people to die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and that more research is needed.
In contrast, he said, there is a growing belief that the variant is more transmissible than the original strain of coronavirus. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more easily transmitted.
“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he says. “It’s going to last, probably, forever,” Vallance said.
Collective immunity in Israel
Asked about the report, a senior Israeli expert said the British variant will make it much more difficult for the country to achieve collective immunity.
Noting that it was “much more contagious,” Professor Gili Regev of Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv told Channel 12 that instead of being able to get herd immunity after vaccinating between 60 and 75 percent of the population , Israel should now do so. vaccinate more than 75% and maybe even 90%.
“This means it will take a lot longer, especially since we are not vaccinating children,” she said.
Prof. Gili Regev-Yochai, Director of the Infection, Prevention and Control Unit of Sheba Medical Center in Tel-Hashomer (Youtube screenshot)
“We are a long way from the end of this pandemic,” Regev said, but noted that Israel was ending the first phase of the fight against COVID-19.
In Israel, nearly 2.5 million people received the first dose of the vaccine on Friday, of which nearly 900,000 also received a second dose.
Regev said his hospital had noticed a “significant” drop in infections and an increase in antibodies in those who received a second dose and predicted that this would start to impact the number of viruses in the coming weeks.
Deputy Health Ministry director Itamar Grotto told Channel 13 on Friday that health officials feared the entry of more variants of the virus from abroad and recommended cutting international travel.
“In the country, we are successful in vaccinating and the lockdown is starting to show results,” Grotto said, but due to variations, “our recommendation is to reduce travel from Israel as much as possible for a short period of time.”
Once more Israelis are vaccinated, the public will be better protected against future outbreaks of virus variants and travel restrictions could be eased, he said.
Study the new variant
Maria Van Kerkhove, World Health Organization technical officer on COVID-19, said studies were underway to examine the transmission and severity of the new virus variants.
She said so far “they haven’t seen an increase in severity” but that greater transmission could lead to “an overburdened health care system” and therefore more deaths.
British officials say they are confident that vaccines approved for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists were concerned the variants identified in Brazil and South Africa were no longer resistant to vaccines, adding that more research needed to be done.
Concerns over the newly identified variants have triggered a slew of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to British travelers and the UK has halted flights from Brazil and South Africa.
A man eats take-out food on the steps of St Paul’s Cathedral in the City of London financial district in London, Friday, January 22, 2021, during England’s third national lockdown since the start of the coronavirus epidemic. (AP Photo / Matt Dunham)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said there may be other restrictions.
“We may have to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain has recorded 95,981 deaths among those testing positive for the coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently on lockdown in an attempt to slow the latest outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues and many shops are closed, and people largely have to stay at home.
The number of new infections has started to decline, but deaths remain extremely high, averaging more than 1,000 per day, and the number of hospital patients is 80% higher than the first peak of the pandemic in the spring.
Johnson, who has often been accused of giving overly optimistic predictions about easing coronavirus restrictions, looked grim.
“We will have to live with the coronavirus one way or another for a long time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when the measures could be relaxed.
“At this point you have to be very, very careful indeed,” he said.
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