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LONDON – A wave of Covid-19 in the UK appears to be receding, a promising sign that high levels of vaccination can keep the highly transmissible Delta variant at bay and give governments confidence in easing public health restrictions.
What is not clear, epidemiologists say, is whether the drop in the number of cases is the start of a sustained decline in Covid-19 thanks to vaccination or a drop that will reverse as people resume socialization and take a step back from the constraints of the pandemic era. released earlier this month.
It could also portend the start of a new, more manageable phase of infection – at least in places where a large part of the population has been vaccinated – in which cases fluctuate but large outbreaks are unlikely, and illnesses severe. and deaths remain low.
How this latest step is unfolding in the UK will offer valuable clues to the US and other countries on what to expect as they increase vaccination rates and argue with Delta. The UK was the first major western economy to experience a major wave of Delta infections. Daily cases are now rising sharply in the United States and parts of Europe, as governments rush to boost failing vaccination campaigns. Some countries in Asia and Africa with minimal access to vaccines are once again tightening public health controls to stem Delta’s advance.
The seven-day average of new cases in the UK stood at 28,271 on Friday, down more than 40% from the 48,000 daily cases just over a week ago, according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal official data. Daily data is volatile: two of the last three days have seen the number of reported cases increase. But the seven-day average of new cases is lower than the 14-day average for a week, another sign of slowing infections.
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