UK’s Delta Variant Wave appears to be declining, offering hope Covid-19 is in retreat

It could also portend the start of a new, more manageable phase of infection – at least in places where a large part of the population has been vaccinated – in which cases fluctuate but large outbreaks are unlikely, and illnesses severe. and deaths remain low.

How this latest step is unfolding in the UK will offer valuable clues to the US and other countries on what to expect as they increase vaccination rates and argue with Delta. The UK was the first major western economy to experience a major wave of Delta infections. Daily cases are now rising sharply in the United States and parts of Europe, as governments rush to boost failing vaccination campaigns. Some countries in Asia and Africa with minimal access to vaccines are once again tightening public health controls to stem Delta’s advance.

The seven-day average of new cases in the UK stood at 28,271 on Friday, down more than 40% from the 48,000 daily cases just over a week ago, according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal official data. Daily data is volatile: two of the last three days have seen the number of reported cases increase. But the seven-day average of new cases is lower than the 14-day average for a week, another sign of slowing infections.

There are currently around 6,000 people hospitalized in the UK with Covid-19, a fraction of the 40,000 hospital cases recorded during the peak of the pandemic in January. Deaths reported over the past seven days have averaged around 70. In January, deaths steadily exceeded 1,200 per day when the pandemic was at its peak. Scientists say it shows the effectiveness of vaccines. Almost 72% of UK adults are fully vaccinated, compared to 60% in the US

The drop follows an increase in the number of cases as the Delta variant spread to younger, mostly unvaccinated age groups over the summer. In mid-June, cases were leaping 50% to 60% per week, prompting Prime Minister Boris Johnson to delay his plan to drop nearly all public health restrictions in England, a move that eventually came to fruition effective July 19.

In Scotland, where cases started to decline earlier than in England, hospital admissions are also dropping, another signal that the virus is on the decline. Daily admissions to Scotland were on average 53 per day in the seven days to July 26, almost 40% lower than in mid-July.

Admissions in England, where most cases are concentrated, continue to rise, but the rate of increase is slowing, data shows. The seven-day average of new hospital admissions fell for the first time in more than a month in the week that ended Wednesday.

Estimates of infection levels in the week to July 24, released by the UK’s Office for National Statistics on Friday, presented a more mixed picture, with infection rates during this period declining in Scotland but increasing in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The agency carries out regular tests on a representative sample of thousands of households to deduce the prevalence of the virus in the community. Its analysis, however, indicated a decline in infection levels in the young and middle-aged groups compared to previous weeks, and the agency said it had detected some signs that the rate of increase in England was slowing.

The battle in the UK is the tug-of-war between the more transmissible Delta variant and the UK’s growing wall of immunity through vaccination or healing from an infection. The UK statistics agency estimates that 92% of UK adults have some degree of immunity to Covid-19 after receiving one or two injections or due to a past infection.

For Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, the decrease in the number of cases suggests that vaccines are winning and the UK is approaching the point where the possibility of the virus spreading is limited by the growing immunity of the population.

“This is the first time that there has been a decrease for a major outbreak in the absence of a lockdown,” he said. “Something here is fundamentally different, the most obvious difference being the possibility of collective immunity. “

In explaining these trends, epidemiologists also highlight other cross-currents that have pushed transmission of the virus from top to bottom. Mr Johnson relaxed some social distancing restrictions before July 19, giving the virus more opportunities to spread. The European Football Championship appears to have played a significant role in the spread of the virus among young men, in particular, according to epidemiologists, as people crowded into bars and homes to cheer on their national teams.

Factors that pushed the virus back more recently have been the end of the football tournament, the start of school holidays, warmer weather that allows people to mingle outdoors and what the UK press has dubbed ‘pingemia’. – mass isolation by close contacts of confirmed cases of Covid-19 at the request of a smartphone application. Nearly 700,000 people in England and Wales have received alerts to self-isolate in the week through July 21, according to the state-run National Health Service.

Epidemiologists warn that current data does not yet fully capture the effect of Mr Johnson’s grand reopening on July 19, as it may take a week or more for a new infection to emerge in the number of cases. His new policy is to let individuals in England decide for themselves whether they wish to wear masks indoors or avoid large crowds, although some legal controls remain, such as isolation for positive tests and travel restrictions. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have set their own public health policies and have chosen to keep some additional controls in place.

A certain increase in cases in the coming weeks is likely, according to epidemiologists, as the relaxation of restrictions increases social mixing. Further afield, fall and winter will mark the start of a new school year and colder weather forcing people to stay indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.

The big question, for the UK and the world as a whole, is to what extent vaccines alone reduce the magnitude of future epidemics, or whether public health measures such as mask wear, working from home and modest social distancing will be needed for a longer time. New more dangerous variants could also deflect the progression.

“I am optimistic that we will not have to go through another period of lockdown with over 1,000 people dying every day. That, I think, is well behind us, ”said Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “I can imagine that some restrictions could be imposed. “

Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the ease of transmission of the virus and the possibility that our immunity to infection wanes over time means that the disease is unlikely to be totally defeated. But it is optimistic that the UK is moving closer to what disease experts describe as an endemic equilibrium, where Covid-19 is growing and decreasing but no longer causing large epidemics.

“Even if we see some increase, it won’t be dramatic,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean the cases will come to naught.”

Write to Jason Douglas at [email protected]