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PHOENIX (AP) – The current outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic will present Arizona with a hospital crisis that could turn into a disaster unless the state takes measures such as the three-week home closure order and implementing a statewide mask mandate, university researchers said.
Without such measures, “it would be like dealing with a major wildfire without an evacuation order,” members of the University of Arizona COVID modeling team said in a letter to the Department on Friday. state health services. The team has been following the outbreak since last spring.
Other measures recommended by the team include providing economic assistance to affected small businesses and families and preventing evictions and foreclosures.
Many local governments have imposed mask warrants since Governor Doug Ducey lifted a ban on such orders last summer. Local mandates cover around 90% of the state’s population, but enforcement is lax or non-existent in some places. A state-wide measure, the modeling team wrote, “ensures consistency and strengthens compliance.”
Ducey at the start of the epidemic closed schools, many businesses and other establishments, but then relaxed restrictions, resulting in a surge of the virus that made Arizona a national hotspot last summer. He then reinstated some restrictions.
Now, as in many states, cases and hospitalizations in Arizona have increased again following the reopening of schools and businesses and public weariness with COVID-19 restrictions.
On November 19, researchers at Arizona State University projected that the state’s hospitals would exceed capacity unless action was taken.
Without re-imposing new general arrest warrants, Ducey has taken steps to demand masks in schools and help hospitals. He has also repeatedly urged Arizonans to wear masks and take other precautions against the spread of COVID-19.
State Senator Martin Quezada, D-Phoenix, endorsed the modeling team’s recommendations. “Heads of state must have political courage and protect public health by adopting them now,” he said on Twitter. “These are not unreasonable requests.”
Asked for comments on the letter from the modeling team, which was first reported by KNXV-TVDepartment of Health Services spokesman Steve Elliott said the agency looks at forecasts from universities and monitors information from hospitals, local health departments and other sources.
“We are on high alert,” Elliott said in an email, adding that mitigating measures such as limits on business occupancy restrictions remain in place.
DHS director Dr Cara Christ said in a video Friday that Arizona was facing a significant spread and the holidays “had the potential to further increase the spread.”
“All the metrics continue to go in the wrong direction,” she said. “To put it simply, people let their guard down.”
On Saturday, the state reported 4,136 additional known cases of COVID-19 and 36 additional deaths, bringing the state’s total to 322,774 cases and 6,624 deaths.
COVID-19-related hospitalizations continue to rise, reaching 2,383 on Friday, including 553 patients in intensive care unit beds, according to the state’s dashboard.
The seven-day moving averages of new daily cases, daily deaths and COVID-19 test positivity in Arizona have all increased in the past two weeks, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project and Johns Hopkins University.
The daily average of new cases rose from 2,116 on November 13 to 3,849 on Friday, while the daily average of deaths increased from 21.1 to 23 and the average positivity rate fell from 14.7% to 19.3% .
The number of infections is believed to be much higher than has been reported because many people have not been tested and studies suggest that people can get infected with the virus without feeling bad.
For most people, the new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, which go away within two to three weeks. For some – especially the elderly and people with existing health problems – it can lead to more serious illnesses, including pneumonia and death.
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