US Covid-19: Coronavirus variant likely to lead to new wave of transmission in spring, some experts say

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The variant, called B.1.1.7, was suspected of causing further spread in Britain. This has been seen across much of the United States – the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the variant accounts for more than 1,880 cases in 45 states.

The variant could “lead to more than one wave” around April or May, said Trevor Bedford of the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

So how can the United States prevent the alleged spring surge? Some experts said on Tuesday that the best way to get ahead of the outbreak was with vaccination.

Bedford, who has closely followed the rise of newer coronavirus variants, predicted that vaccination and mitigation efforts, such as the use of masks and continued social distancing, will help prevent the virus from spreading more.

“I still suspect that things will be brought under control this summer and that there will be very few viruses circulating,” he said.

It’s possible, however, that a new wave could start in the fall, according to Bedford.

Dr Josh Schiffer, infectious disease specialist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, agrees.

“I think with the newly infectious variants … it’s going to be difficult to completely prevent a fourth wave,” said Schiffer, who modeled the spread patterns.

This week, the United States passed 500,000 deaths from Covid-19. The mass tragedy was preventable, said Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“It pains me … when I see things like asking people to do the kinds of things you know to work – wearing a mask, physical separation – and denial,” said Dr Anthony Fauci. , director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases.

It was “really painful for me” to see hospitals overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients, he said, and “in those same areas there were people who denied that this was happening saying,” Oh , this is fake news, this is a hoax. I mean, how could you say when people in your own state, in your own town, in your own county die? “

“Here we are today, looking at 500,000 Americans who have died so far,” Fauci said.

“This is proof of what really happened. You can’t deny it.”

The United States’ Covid-19 death toll is by far the highest of any country – and more than double that of Brazil, which, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, has the second highest number deaths linked to the virus.
Experts said several factors contributed to an unnecessarily brutal pandemic, including a lack of clear messages from the country’s leaders, state and local leaders easing restrictions too quickly, large holiday celebrations and continued resistance to the pandemic. wearing face masks or social distancing.

The race for vaccination

More than 44.5 million people have received at least one dose of their two-dose vaccines, data showed Tuesday from the CDC.

Why it's important to wear a mask even after receiving a Covid-19 vaccine

About 19.8 million were fully immunized with both doses, the CDC said. This represents about 6% of the American population.

The United States can expect to have a total of 240 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by the end of March, according to remarks prepared by vaccine manufacturers at a hearing of the subcommittee of the House Tuesday.

Pfizer and Moderna – the two companies with Covid-19 vaccines cleared for emergency use in the United States – have pledged to make a combined total of 220 million doses available for shipment by the end of the month Of March.

That would be enough to immunize 110 million Americans, since both vaccines require two doses.

Johnson & Johnson, which has yet to receive emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine, has pledged to make 20 million doses available within the same amount of time. His vaccine only requires one dose.

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Pfizer said it plans to increase the number of doses available for shipment from about 4 million to 5 million doses per week in early February to more than 13 million doses per week by mid-March.

“We are on track to make 120 million doses available for shipment by the end of March and an additional 80 million doses by the end of May. And we expect the 300 million contract doses will be available for shipment by the end of July. , allowing the vaccination of up to 150 million Americans, ”the company said in its prepared remarks.

Moderna, the other company with an approved Covid-19 vaccine, said it was on track to deliver 100 million doses by the end of March and that it plans to double monthly deliveries by April to over 40 million doses per month.

“Based on this progress in scaling up manufacturing, we recently agreed to increase our delivery schedule: we now aim to deliver a second 100 million doses by the end of May and a third one hundred million doses by the end of July, ”Moderna said in his prepared remarks.

1 dose of vaccine * might * be enough for some, according to NIH director

It is possible that a single dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine will be sufficient for those who have already been infected with the coronavirus – but more research will be needed to show it, wrote on Tuesday the director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr Francis. Collins in a blog post. .
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“While much more research is needed – and I’m certainly not suggesting a change in current recommendations at this time – the findings raise the possibility that one dose may be enough for someone who has been infected with SARS-CoV. -2 and which has already generated antibodies against the virus, ”Collins wrote.

He referred to a recent prepublication of a small NIH-funded study that looked at 109 people who had already received a first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

It found that for 41 people who tested positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies before their first injection, the immune response to the first dose was “equal or, in some cases, better” than the response to the. second dose in people without infection.

“If further studies support these findings, the United States Food and Drug Administration may decide to determine whether a dose is sufficient for people who have previously had a COVID-19 infection. Such a policy is already in place. study in France and, if implemented, would help expand vaccine supply and get more people vaccinated sooner, ”Collins writes.

“But any serious consideration of this option will require more data. It will also be for expert advisers from the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to decide.”

Right now, Collins said, the most important things for everyone to do is follow the three W’s – wear a mask, wash your hands and watch the distance – “and roll up our sleeves for the vaccine as soon as we get it. ‘he is available to us. “

What Americans need to do to “ get back to normal ”

Nearly a third of people with `` mild '' Covid-19 are still fighting symptoms months later, study finds

“The best way for us to get back to normal is to double down right now, not to throw away our masks, not to eat in, not to do other things that we know they can risk. reignite epidemics, “said Dr. Craig Spencer, director of global health in emergency medicine at New York-Presbyterian / Columbia University Medical Center.

“The majority of people in this country, despite previous infections and despite two months of the vaccine, the majority of people still have no protection against Covid and can be infected,” Spencer said. “It’s not over and we have to overtake.”

This means continuing to mask yourself, keeping your distance from others, avoiding crowded places, and washing your hands regularly.

CNN’s Naomi Thomas, Jacqueline Howard, Christopher Rios, Jen Christensen and Michael Nedelman contributed to this report.

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