In the fold? What is the next step for Instagram as founders

SAN FRANCISCO – When Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger sold Instagram to Facebook in 2012, fans of the photo sharing startup were worried about what would happen to their application under the wings of the social media giant.

None of their worst fears have materialized. But now that its founders have announced that they are leaving in a whirlwind of wishes and vague explanations, some of the same worries are coming up again – and more. Will Instagram disappear? Be cluttered with ads and status updates? Sucked out of personal data for advertising as her parents do? Losing his cool?

The worst: will it become another Facebook?

"It's probably a bigger challenge (for Facebook) than most people realize," said Omar Akhtar, an analyst at Altimeter. "Instagram is the only platform in full growth. And many people have not necessarily established the connection between Instagram and Facebook. "

Instagram had only 31 million users when Facebook won for $ 1 billion; now he has a billion. There were no ads at the time; it now has display and video ads, although they are still limited compared to Facebook. But that could change quickly. Facebook's growth has started to slow down and Wall Street has pushed the company to find new ways to increase its revenue.

Instagram has been at the center of these efforts.

Facebook has raised the profile of Instagram in its financial discussions. In July, it unveiled a new metric for analysts, arguing that 2.5 billion people use at least one of its applications – Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp or Messenger – each month. While not particularly revealing, the measure underscores the growing importance that Facebook attaches to these secondary applications.

Facebook does not disclose the amount of Instagram money, although Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter estimates it will be about $ 6 billion this year, just over 10% of the figure. Facebook's global business, estimated at around $ 55.7 billion.

Facebook's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has long seen the promise of Instagram. At the time, it was by far the largest acquisition of Facebook (although it was overshadowed by the $ 19 billion Zuckerberg paid for WhatsApp two years later). And it was the first start allowed to operate mainly independently.

It paid a lot of time. Not only did Instagram reach 1 billion users faster than its parent company, but it also managed to clone Snapchat's popular "Stories" feature, seriously beating this social network that has repeatedly failed. Instagram has also launched a long-running video feature to challenge YouTube, another big Facebook rival.

Recently, Instagram has had the wind in its sails. In June, Systrom went to New York to inaugurate its new office, featuring an ice bar and planning to hire hundreds of engineers. A month earlier, Instagram had moved to new offices in San Francisco. In a July call for results, Zuckerberg described Instagram's success as a function of Facebook integration, saying it uses the parent company's infrastructure to grow "more than twice as fast" she would not have done it.

But Instagram has also been a case study of how to run an affiliate independently – especially when her parents are involved in user privacy issues and concerns about voter interference, misinformation and misinformation. And especially when her parents have long since stopped being cool, with everyone and their grandmother.

The simple design of Instagram – just a collection of photos and videos of sunsets, distant vacations, intimate breakfasts and close-ups of baby – allowed him to stay a favorite long after it was integrated to Facebook. If people go on Twitter to make fun of the news and Facebook to see what old classmates are doing, Instagram is where they will relax, scroll down and feast their eyes.

So, will it change?

"I do not think Zuckerberg is stupid," said Akhtar. "He knows that much of Instagram's popularity is that it's separate from Facebook."

As such, he thinks Facebook would be wise to reassure users that what they love about Instagram will not change – that they will not be forced to integrate Facebook. "It will go very far," he said.

Internally, the challenge is a bit more complicated. While Systrom and Krieger did not say why they were leaving, their decision echoes the recent departure of WhatsApp co-founder and CEO, Jan Koum, who resigned in April. Koum had pointed out years earlier that he would take a stand if Facebook's efforts to increase profits could compromise the fundamentals of the WhatsApp messaging service, such as its attachment to user privacy. When Facebook began redoubling its efforts to increase revenue and integrate more with WhatsApp, Koum pulled the strings.

A sign that further integration could take place in the future of Instagram: in May, Zuckerberg sent Facebook's longtime leader, Adam Mosseri, to exploit Instagram's products. Mosseri replaced long-time Instagram developer Kevin Weil, who was taken back to Facebook.

This is probably not the case with the founders of Instagram, said Akhtar and other analysts. Now that they are gone, Mosseri is the most obvious candidate to lead Instagram.

"The followers of Kevin Systrom will probably leave," Akhtar said.

This means that Facebook will soon have a new challenge: find out how to continue to grow on Instagram if it loses its cool.

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