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Kuo anticipates a better replacement demand than expected for the iPhone XR, as well as an improved offer from October, leading it to revise estimates of its planned shipments.
Apple is now expected to deliver between 36 and 38 million iPhone XR units in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 10 percent from an initial estimate of 33 to 35 million units.
As he said last week in a note about XR driving upgrades in China, Kuo expects the iPhone XR to outperform the iPhone 8 because of its larger screen, longer life, dual SIM card and new design.
According to the revised forecast for XR shipments, Kuo thinks that Apple will deliver a total of 75 to 80 million iPhone units during 4T2018.
IPhone XR shipments are also expected to increase in the first quarter of 2019, a historically slow quarter for Apple. The decline from one quarter to the next should be between 25 and 30% instead of 45 to 50% for the iPhone 8.
We expect XR shipments to beat the low seasonality in 1Q19. We expect XR shipments in 1Q19 to decrease by 25-30% in one quarter to 27-30 million units. production time. In addition, the drop in QoQ shipments from XR to 1T19 will be better than that of the iPhone 8 series at 45-50% in 1Q18.
The total iPhone shipments in the first quarter of 2019 are expected to increase by 10% year on year to reach 55 to 60 million units, thanks to the power of the iPhone XR. XS, XR and old model allocations will be 35%, 50% and 15% respectively.
The Apple iPhone XR will be available for pre-order at 12:01 pm Pacific Time on Friday, Oct. 19. An official launch will follow Friday, October 26th. The new colorful Apple iPhone will cost $ 749 at the entrance. model.
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