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Wednesday is the big day of release of Apple, where analysts expect the company the release of the next edition of the iPhone. While the usual updates of the screen, processor and storage are expected as always, one of the main outstanding issues is how the company will handle the next-generation telecommunication standard 5G .
The conventional wisdom among analysts is that Apple will ignore 5G in 2018 and 2019, just as it took longer to deploy 3G and 4G chipsets into its phones. A typical example of this analysis comes from Chris Smith, of BGR, who states that "we have already seen what Apple did when 4G LTE came out. The company has been waiting for carriers to offer decent coverage before launching the first iPhone 4G. It was also the iPhone 5, which was launched more than a year after the release of the first Android-based LTE phones. "
I am not so convinced. There are many reasons why Apple ignores this technology this year, which I'll come back to in a moment, but a major factor could lead to an earlier discussion of 5G: Apple's growth markets, particularly in China.
China is becoming one of the most important markets for Apple's smartphones, especially for its iPhone X. Its sales in China amounted to $ 9.6 billion in the third quarter . More importantly, Greater China is slightly below the Americas as the fastest growing region for Apple sales.
This makes 5G a particularly difficult problem for the company. China has made 5G leadership a key pillar of its industrial strategy, and many analysts believe that the country will set the pace for 5G deployments globally. In addition, Chinese consumers are very interested in purchasing quality products and experiences, and the adoption of 5G should be fast and strong.
With the technical specifications around the 5G standard, companies are activating to build the chipsets and deploy the necessary infrastructure to enable this new standard in smartphones and other devices. The first networks are expected to be deployed in 2019, and chipset manufacturer Qualcomm has publicly unveiled more than a dozen handset manufacturers who have partnered on 5G. For example, Vivo, a Chinese manufacturer of smartphones, today announced the development of its first "pre-commercial 5G smartphones," which will be launched next year.
The speed and timing of the 5G deployment is difficult for Apple, which has traditionally timed its iPhone events in September. It will certainly not be announced this week, but its next iPhone launch is expected to take place in September 2019, giving Chinese handset manufacturers with the first 5G devices an almost exclusive access to the local market for all three first quarters of next year.
Apple would be lagging behind its competitors in a rapidly growing and critical market. While the company has built a brand in the country with dedicated fans, its place in the market is not as safe as in the US, especially because the trade war between the two countries reached its climax.
There is no doubt that the challenges for Apple to include technology are immense. The first is the cost of the patent license, which Jeremy Horwitz of VentureBeat estimated at about $ 21 per device, versus $ 9 for 4G. Secondly, it is believed that the leading American company in 5G is Qualcomm, that Apple has been fighting for a long time in a patent war, to the point that the company is actively striving to remove Qualcomm equipment from its phones. Apple's name was notably absent from 5G list of partners.
Although some of the first chip designs are available, they are hardly ready for rush hour, and certainly not for a flagship phone like the iPhone X. I also do not think Apple will support 5G in future versions and its new devices. Nobody wants to be told that next year's devices will be better than a device released a few minutes ago.
Instead, I hope that Apple will use smoke signals to clearly demonstrate that it intends to remain at the forefront of 5G deployment. This could include joining some industry groups, testing technology more publicly and potentially publishing a roadmap next year, at the Worldwide Developers Conference, which traditionally takes place in June and therefore earlier in the world. year as its September events. .
What would be worrying is if we come to the end of the year 2018 and by the end of the year 2019 with a glimpse of the company on its technology projects. Given its commitment to China, as well as its leading position in the smartphone market, the company must publicly commit to technologies around the 5G in order to avoid a loss of competitive position.
In the end, a lot of things will depend on China Mobile and other telecom operators in China and around the world to determine how quickly they can deploy 5G infrastructure (unfortunately, the US is becoming increasingly disordered) . Beyond the golden rumors on the iPhone, the 5G could be the first for China to drive the roadmaps of its products, and it should be kept on the defensive.
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