Utah Department of Health’s model overestimated school-age cases by nearly 29,000 for September, officials say

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SALT LAKE CITY – Utah saw about 29,000 fewer cases of COVID-19 among school-aged children in September than previous models estimated, according to the Utah Department of Health.

“In August, we estimated that there could be 39,000 cases of # COVID-19 in September among school-aged children in Utah. We were a long way away. The actual number was 9,957, well below of our projection, ”the Utah Department of Health said in a recent tweet.

Department officials have acknowledged that public health modeling is “complex” because it attempts to predict behavior based on past measurements.

“Our modeling relied on factors such as adolescent vaccination rates, potential immunity from past cases and transmission rates,” the department said. “These factors strongly suggest that school-age cases were going to be much higher in September than in September of last year.”

The rates were 3.6 times higher than last year, but not 13.9 times higher than expected. Officials called data from the first few weeks of the school year “promising.”

“We will continue to be transparent and provide accurate information to all Utahns on # COVID19. We will continue to learn and grow as we respond to this disease,” the department tweeted.

Salt Lake County Case Rate

In Salt Lake County, which has been one of the biggest hotbeds of the disease throughout the pandemic, 3,125 cases of the coronavirus associated with schools have been confirmed since the start of the school year, said the Dr. Angela Dunn, Executive Director of Salt Lake County. Department of Health, at a county council meeting on Tuesday.

About half of those cases happened in elementary schools, according to Dunn.

The lowest case rates for the first 40 days of school occurred in the Salt Lake City School District, she tweeted on Tuesday.

The district is the only one in Salt Lake County to have a mask warrant, which was ordered by Salt Lake City Mayor Erin Mendenhall after a K-6 mask warrant requested by Dunn was quashed by the county council.

In the first 49 days of school across the county, 33 children under 18 had to be hospitalized due to COVID-19, Dunn tweeted.

Dunn said the number of cases in the county and the use of COVID-19 intensive care units continue to decline, even though the percentage positivity rate has increased slightly. But Dunn said the rate is stable, indicating a plateau.

The number of cases is declining in all age groups except those 40 to 49, she said.

Latest data from Utah

Utah health officials reported 1,975 new COVID-19 cases and 12 deaths on Wednesday.

School-aged children accounted for 434 of the latest cases – 187 cases were between 5 and 10 years old, 106 cases were between 11 and 13 years old and 141 cases were between 14 and 17 years old, according to a daily update given by the Utah Department of Health.

The seven-day moving average for positive tests is 1422 per day, and the average percent positivity rate of those tested is 15.4%.

Health workers have provided 10,124 doses of vaccine since the previous day’s report, bringing the total doses administered in Utah to 3,525,706.

In the past 28 days, unvaccinated residents faced 6.4 times the risk of dying from COVID-19, 7 times the risk of being hospitalized from COVID-19, and 6.3 times more more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those vaccinated.

Since February 1, unvaccinated people are 4 times more likely to die from COVID-19, 4.8 times more likely to be hospitalized from COVID-19 and 4 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those vaccinated. , the data show.

Of Wednesday’s cases, 397 were confirmed as “breakthrough” cases, meaning they had been fully vaccinated more than two weeks ago. The state also confirmed 17 new hospitalizations and three breakthrough deaths, according to the data.

State health officials and doctors have noted that receiving the vaccine does not mean someone will not contract the coronavirus, but in most cases, it protects against serious illness. The vaccine also does not cause a person to contract COVID-19.

Since vaccines became available to the public earlier this year, the state has confirmed 19,806 breakthrough cases, 1,011 breakthrough hospitalizations and 131 breakthrough deaths.

As of Wednesday, 575 patients across Utah were hospitalized with the coronavirus, an increase of 19 since Tuesday.

The latest deaths:

• Man from Sanpete County, 65 to 84, who was hospitalized when he died
• Iron County man, 45-64, resident in long-term care facility
• Salt Lake County man, 25-44, hospitalized
• Duchesne County woman, 25-44, hospitalized
• Uintah County woman, 65-84, hospitalized
• Washington County man, over 85, hospitalized
• Tooele County man, 45-64, hospitalized
• Davis County woman, 65-84, hospitalized
• Washington County woman, 65-84, hospitalized
• Weber County man, over 85, doesn’t know if he’s hospitalized
• Utah County man, over 85, doesn’t know if he’s hospitalized
• Utah County man, 65-84, doesn’t know if he’s been hospitalized

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