UTSW Predicts COVID-19 Figures As Worst Pandemic Times If Latest Trends Continue

Update at 10 a.m. on July 22: Revised to include Tarrant County coronavirus numbers.

By October, COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in North Texas could return to levels not seen since January and last summer, according to the latest forecast model from UT Southwestern Medical Center.

This is especially true if vaccination rates remain slow and the public does not step up mask use and social distancing, experts say.

“We are really at an important crossroads and decision point, where we have this narrow window to take action to help turn the tide of these growing cases,” said Dr James Cutrell, disease expert infectious diseases at UTSW.

The model, which used data from Monday, predicts that Dallas County will see about 600 new coronavirus infections per day by August 9. UTSW’s previous model, which used data as of July 13, predicted the county would see about 200 new infections per day by August 2.

Hospitalizations in North Texas have increased 89% in the past two weeks and 156% in the past month, according to the latest model. State data shows that 925 people in the 19-county area that includes Dallas-Fort Worth are hospitalized with the virus on Monday.

The updated UTSW model predicts that Dallas County alone will have 400 to 500 hospital patients with COVID-19 cases by August 9.

Dr Stephen Love, president and CEO of the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, said if the model’s forecast for August comes true, hospitals will have enough beds and PPE, but could face problems with personal, as they did in January.

Love noted that the traveling nurses provided by the state to bolster the existing hospital staff in January are no longer in place.

Two main reasons for peaks

Cutrell said the spike in cases and hospitalizations was mainly due to slowing vaccination rates and the growing importance of the highly contagious delta variant.

The delta variant is 40 to 50 percent more transmissible than the original, unmutated strain of coronavirus, Cutrell said. It can also cause more serious illness in the unvaccinated.

According to the state, 1,307,362 people in Dallas County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 1,119,856 – 51.3% of the county’s population aged 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

But the pace of vaccinations has slowed, especially among people under 65, who now account for the largest share of hospital admissions in most counties in North Texas, Cutrell said.

The virus is wreaking havoc among the unvaccinated statewide.

Of the 8,787 Texans who died from COVID-19 from February 8 to July 14, at least 43 have been fully immunized, the Texas Tribune reported on Wednesday, citing preliminary data from the Texas Department of State Health Services. That means 99.5% of those deaths were in unvaccinated people, according to the Tribune. reported.

“We still have a chance to curve the curve and avoid these sharp increases in cases and hospitalizations,” Cutrell said. “But I want to stress that now is the time to act.”

Latest Dallas County Report

Dallas County on Wednesday reported five more deaths from COVID-19 and 659 new cases of the coronavirus.

The latest victims were two Dallas men between 30 and 70, a Balch Springs woman in her 50s, a Grand Prairie man in her 70s and a Sunnyvale man in her 80s.

Of the new cases, 546 were confirmed and 113 were probable. The figures bring the county’s total cases to 311,380, of which 266,820 are confirmed and 44,560 probable. The death toll is 4,171.

The average number of daily new cases in the county over the past two weeks is 249. For the previous 14-day period, the average was 154.

Texas

Statewide, 5,240 more cases were reported on Wednesday, including 5,056 new cases and 184 older cases recently reported by labs.

The state also reported 33 deaths from COVID-19, bringing its toll to 51,709.

Of the new cases, 3,621 were confirmed and 1,435 were probable. Of the oldest cases, 150 have been confirmed and 34 were probable.

The state’s total number of cases is now 3,039,980, of which 2,584,324 are confirmed and 455,656 probable.

According to the state, 14,402,702 people in Texas have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 12,447,607 – 51.7% of the state’s population aged 12 and over – are fully vaccinated.

Tarrant County

Tarrant County reported two deaths and 320 cases on Wednesday.

No details on the latest casualties were available.

The newly reported figures bring the county’s total cases to 268,194, of which 223,645 are confirmed and 44,549 probable. The death toll is 3,610.

The county reported on Wednesday that 321 people had been hospitalized with the virus.

According to the state, 974,576 people in Tarrant County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 863,576 – 49.7% of the county’s population aged 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Collin County

The state added one death and 223 cases to the Collin County totals on Wednesday.

No details on the last victim were available.

Of the new cases, 188 were confirmed and 35 were probable. The figures bring the county’s total cases to 94,430, including 76,931 confirmed and 17,499 probable. The death toll is 856.

According to the state, 596,924 people in Collin County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 531,074 – 61.4% of the county’s population aged 12 and older – are fully vaccinated .

Denton County

Denton County reported 210 cases on Wednesday. No additional deaths were reported.

The newly reported cases bring the county’s total cases to 78,476, of which 57,277 are confirmed and 21,199 probable. The death toll is 628.

According to the state, 465,780 people in Denton County have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 413,167 – 55.1% of the county’s population aged 12 and older – are fully vaccinated.

Other counties

The Texas Department of State Health Services took over the reporting for these other North Texas counties. In some countries, new data may not be communicated every day. The latest numbers are:

• Rockwall County: 12,167 cases (9,617 confirmed and 2,550 probable), 159 deaths.
• Kaufman County: 16,751 cases (13,791 confirmed and 2,960 probable), 268 deaths.
• Ellis County: 23,267 cases (19,054 confirmed and 4,213 probable), 325 deaths.
• Johnson County: 20,360 cases (17,159 confirmed and 3,201 probable), 380 deaths.