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| Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
UW Health issued an open letter on Sunday imploring residents of the state to take the COVID-19 pandemic seriously to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and the death toll skyrocketing.
“Wisconsin is currently in a bad patch, with no signs that things are improving without action,” the open letter said. “We are, quite simply, short of time. Without immediate change, our hospitals will be too full to treat all those who have the virus and those who suffer from other illnesses or injuries. ”
The letter was published on the first day since October 17 that no new deaths from the disease have been reported.
But it was also released days after the Wisconsin Hospital Association warned in a letter to Gov. Tony Evers and legislative leaders that the crisis was on its way to becoming a disaster.
And a model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that Wisconsin could reach 4,000 deaths in early December and 5,000 deaths before Christmas.
To put that into perspective, 1,000 people had died from COVID-19 as of August 11, about five months after the start of the pandemic. By Halloween, 1,000 more people had died.
As of Saturday, 3,005 people had died from COVID-19.
Last week was the deadliest since the start of the pandemic.
Patrick Remington, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist and director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s preventive medicine residency program, said last week he was “absolutely certain” the state will surpass 5,000 death by the end of the year. .
State health officials on Sunday reported 3,507 new cases of COVID-19 and no additional deaths.
The seven-day average of new cases was 6,043, according to the State Department of Health Services. This is down from an average of 6,422 per day the week before.
Still, a total of 42,301 people in the state were diagnosed with COVID-19 last week.
According to one estimate, 3.5% of those diagnosed – or about 1,480 people – will need to be hospitalized. More than 300 of them could die.
“Anyone who says it’s not a big deal isn’t looking at the numbers,” Remington said last week. “To date, more people have died in the state of Wisconsin from COVID-19 than die in a year from stroke, diabetes, suicide, homicide, car accidents, Alzheimer’s, bronchitis, emphysema, influenza, pneumonia, etc. “
Hospitals statewide are at or near full capacity and face severe staffing shortages due to employees who have been infected with the virus or must self-quarantine because they have been exposed to someone. one who has it.
The Wisconsin Hospital Association noted that the number of COVID-19 hospital patients was double what it was four weeks ago and six times what it was eight weeks ago.
Many health systems have already taken steps to limit the number of elective procedures and surgeries due to severe staff shortages and the limited number of beds available.
The virus is also now spread statewide.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has roughly tripled since September 19.
Additionally, people can become infected and contagious before they show symptoms. And up to 40% of those infected may never show symptoms but can infect other people.
The immediate concern is that gatherings of family and friends over the holidays could add to the recent surge, potentially crushing hospitals now at or near full capacity.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week recommended that people avoid traveling on Thanksgiving and only celebrate with people who live in their household.
“Thanksgiving dinners have the potential to be super-broadcast events,” said Robert Citronberg, physician and executive medical director of infectious diseases and prevention at Advocate Aurora Health last week.
Despite the severity of the crisis, many people continue to believe the risks of COVID-19 are overestimated, saying the disease is no different from the flu and the death toll is swelling.
The decline in the seven-day average of confirmed cases suggests that this may be declining.
But in its open letter, UW Health said, “Outside of our hospitals, we still see large gatherings without masks. We’re hearing about Thanksgiving dinner plans that will send even more people to our already very full COVID-19 units – units full of patients who might not survive a fight against this virus. “
UW Health noted that people had heard the recommendations – like avoiding gatherings, wearing a mask and washing their hands frequently – “a thousand times”.
“But if the thousand and one first time has an impact, it’s worth it,” the letter said. “If you stop the spread to one person, it’s worth it.”
Natalie Brophy of USA-Today Network Wisconsin contributed to this report.
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