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Pssst. Sit. Prepare yourselves. Sooner or later we will all catch COVID-19, many experts say.
Even though we are fully vaccinated.
“The idea that we’re going to live our lives without ever having it is a fantasy – and dangerous,” said Andrew Noymer, epidemiologist and demographer at UC Irvine. “A lot of people just don’t understand this. We’re all going to get it.
While many experts agree, this idea – like almost everything in science as it unfolds before your eyes – is not universally adopted.
“It’s a particularly dystopian view,” said Dr George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at UC San Francisco. “I don’t plan to get it, and I don’t think people who have been vaccinated should plan to get it.”
All bets are off, however, for the unvaccinated. “Unless you live off the grid like a hermit and come into contact with other people,” Rutherford said, “he will find you.”
But most experts agree on one thing: Ditch predicts the COVID party will simply end. With up to a third of patients suffering from “long COVID,” even though their cases were mild, “it’s playing with hand grenades,” Noymer said.
COVID-19 for all
Once upon a time, the hope was that most people could escape infection with COVID-19. But the delta variant – about as contagious as chickenpox and the strength behind summer flare-ups – changed all that.
“While initially we thought we could maybe aim for the elimination of the virus, bringing it to very low levels, the delta variant was a great example of the humility we need to be when we look at it. ‘future,’ said Dr Jorge Salinas, an infectious disease expert at Stanford.
“Now there is a growing consensus that there will be some level of transmission of this virus intermittently for the foreseeable future. We may be able to bring the levels down to a very manageable level, with a few seasonal increases, but this virus is most likely not going to go away. And, therefore, the possibility of being exposed to it is present for all humans. A good proportion of humanity will be at risk at some point and may even develop disease. “
Dr Monica Gandhi, infectious disease expert and professor of medicine at UCSF, agrees. “Delta is a highly transmissible variant of COVID-19, so spreads easily and is difficult to contain,” she said. “I think we’ll all be exposed to the Delta at one point or another.”
But, at least for those vaccinated, exposure and infection do not mean serious illness and possible death, as many of those who got rid of “breakthrough” infections will argue.
“When I say we’re all going to get it, I don’t mean we’re all going to die of it,” Noymer said. “I’m not saying, ‘Prepare yourself and make sure your will is in order.’ But, unless we all make a New Zealand, there are going to be reintroductions of the virus. Vaccines, we now know, are not perfect. Breakthrough cases are kind of a thing. And we saw that many cases were asymptomatic even before the vaccines, and even more after, and maybe even more after the booster. “
That, along with low vaccination rates at home and especially abroad, means COVID-19 will continue to circulate and spread.
“COVID is here to stay. We are not going to eradicate COVID. Ten years from now, there will still be COVID, ”Noymer said.
Not inevitable
Just because COVID is the guest who just won’t leave the party doesn’t mean that large numbers of those vaccinated will be infected, UCSF’s Rutherford said.
From a structural biology standpoint, there are simply a finite number of possible mutations on the virus’s receptor binding domain – the key part of its spike protein that allows it to attach and invade cells.
“None of this is certain, but I suspect delta is the far right edge of the bad variants in terms of transmissibility,” Rutherford said.
And while not an impenetrable shield, the vaccines have proven to be extremely protective. The vaccination, along with the other common sense precautions we have taken over the past year and a half, have clearly reduced transmission and infection, he said.
Immunologist Anthony Leonardi also does not consider massive infection to be inevitable.
“In my opinion, we will soon have a technology that provides passive immunity,” he said. “And in addition, second generation vaccines are in the works and look very promising.”
The next wave of therapy promises to completely block the infection.
“Unfortunately, their development will take time, but I think in a decade, SARS-CoV-2 infection will not be that common,” he said.
Waiting for
Until then, we know how to protect ourselves, experts say.
Natural infection will produce immunity in those who survive it. But vaccination decreases the risk of serious illness and death by 10 to 25 times.
“The vaccine protects an individual against serious illness due to this variant, which is why it is so important to be vaccinated,” said Gandhi of Stanford. “For those who are vaccinated, it will likely boost their immune response. For those who are not vaccinated, they will likely gain immunity, but getting the vaccine is safer than risking illness to gain immunity. “
It is a social responsibility to keep transmission as low as possible, to reduce the risk for those most vulnerable to the disease and to reduce the stress on the country’s health system, and those working on the front lines, according to many.
“I think we will gradually – and, of course, looking both ways before we take each step – will have to get used to the idea that some level of transmission will occur, but we also need to be reassured by the fact that vaccines protect us, and even if I catch it, I won’t die because I’m vaccinated, ”Stanford Salinas said.
“It allows us to enjoy and live life without COVID-19 being a pervasive barrier. I think vaccines and other interventions allow us, without completely forgetting the trauma of the pandemic, to start moving forward. “
However, those who are not vaccinated will continue to live in what Salinas has called “the pandemic era,” with a much higher risk of dying from infection.
Hang around like the flu
Dr Bruce Patterson, virologist and CEO of IncellDx, is among the 90% of infectious disease and virology experts who believe COVID will become endemic, which means it will stay like the flu indefinitely.
“So even with the development of herd immunity and vaccination, it will continue to affect the world’s population indefinitely, albeit with less transmission and fewer hospitalizations (and) deaths,” he said. he declared by email.
“One of the big concerns about rampant COVID that not enough people are talking about is that about a third of people develop long-term COVID without ever having experienced a serious case of COVID-19. In fact, most of our patients have developed COVID long after a mild or moderate or even asymptomatic case of COVID-19. The healthcare community will need to have a much greater understanding of the physiology of long COVID and a greater awareness of what to look for. “
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