Vaccine will bring relief, but still ‘a few difficult months ahead’

Medical workers train at a COVID vaccination clinic. (Photo by Steve Parsons – WPA Pool / Getty Images)

With a COVID-19 vaccine expected to arrive in Washington in the coming weeks, modelers at UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) are issuing a warning to keep expectations under control in the short term.

Washington begins to prepare for the arrival of the COVID vaccine in December

Vaccines will likely start distributing to frontline medical workers and first responders by the end of December, with older people, educators, law enforcement and other high-risk groups expected to follow in the weeks. and months to come.

Members of the public not in this high-risk bracket are not expected to receive the vaccine until much later, the IHME urges people to remain aware of the COVID restrictions and continue to exercise caution.

“The massive scale-up of immunization in 2021 means that we have the road to return to normal life, but there are still a few difficult months to come,” Dr Chris Murray, director of IHME, said in a statement release Thursday.

Dr Murray expects vaccines to start making an impact in reducing COVID cases and deaths from April 2021, assuming they are deployed quickly. Until April 1, the IHME predicts that the vaccine will likely reduce the number of deaths from the virus by around 9,000 people, reducing the projected total from 548,000 to 524,000.

Virologist: We need to adjust expectations for COVID vaccine

From there, “warmer temperatures and rising vaccination rates” will continue to bring down cases and deaths in the months to come.

In the meantime, Dr Murray has supported the imposition of limits on large-scale gatherings to reduce transmission.

“It is crucial that governments impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks,” he said. “Where the winter push leads to peaks in infections, many people can still be infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully deployed.

Assuming it gets FDA approval, Pfizer’s vaccine, said to be 95% effective, will be given in two doses three weeks apart. A Moderna vaccine boasted an efficacy rate of 94%, given in two doses 28 days apart. Neither resulted in serious safety concerns during the trial phase, although minor side effects – including fatigue, headache, myalgia, and redness at the injection site – were seen in one little one. percentage of patients.

Pfizer told state officials it initially has around 62,400 doses of its vaccine for Washington, and up to 200,000 doses by the end of December, followed by regular weekly shipments from January 2021.