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“I would expect a similar trajectory” in the United States, said Trevor Bedford, evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. The variant probably represents less than 1% of cases currently, he estimated, but could constitute the majority of cases by March.
The variant has 23 mutations, compared to the original virus discovered in Wuhan, China. Seventeen mutations have appeared since the virus diverged from its most recent ancestor, said Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland and science adviser to the UK government.
The speed with which the virus has acquired so many alterations worries scientists, who expected the coronavirus to evolve much more slowly.
Current vaccine candidates are expected to continue to protect people against the disease, several experts have said. But the appearance of the new variant, which contains at least one mutation that weakens the body’s immune protection, makes it likely that the vaccines will need regular adjustments, just as they do to remain effective against the flu virus.
Scientists still don’t know how much more easily the mutant spreads. Initial estimates were about 70% more transmissible, but the figure has since been revised to 56% and could drop further, Dr Cevik said.
But with each new person it infects, the coronavirus is also more likely to mutate, and therefore more likely to occur on mutations that give it an advantage – making it more transmissible, for example, or less susceptible to it. immune system.
“If you are fed up with what’s going on, huge amounts of viral replication around the world, then you’re going to get a lot of different variants,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.
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