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A Sunday on West 2nd Street in Muscatine, Iowa. (Joshua Lott / for the Washington Post)
Jenna Johnson
National Policy Correspondent covering campaigns and voters
MUSCATINE, Iowa – The east of Iowa is home to industrial riverside towns, small towns surrounded by lush farmland and a significant number of voters who have been urged to vote for Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
And unlike many Republican supporters of the President, who could never imagine voting for a Democrat, many of those Obama-Trump voters are willing to do so, which means that Iowa counties Located along or near the Mississippi, and similar throughout the Midwest, could once again be the key to determining the next president.
"I voted for Trump – I'm still not sure that's the right decision," said Tammy Faulkner, a 48-year-old convenience store saleswoman who lives in Louisa County, in the southeastern from Iowa, and voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. A realistic guy who would order a cheeseburger and fries, even though he was given more elaborate options, said, "I have no qualms about to vote for one or the other side, provided that they are ready to do what is necessary for our country back to where we need it. "
Faulkner is unhappy with some of the things Trump did – her comments about the immigrants she calls "racist" and the tariff war he fired that could hurt farmers who go to her house to take a coffee – and she is willing to vote for a democrat in 2020. But she has no idea who it is or even which of the 23 candidates best fits what she's looking for .
"In all honesty here, she said, lately, I have not been very careful."
"I voted for Trump – I'm still not sure it was the right decision," said Tammy Faulkner at Weed Park in Muscatine. (Joshua Lott / for the Washington Post)
For many voters in this part of the state, this could change. Many candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination focused their efforts on East Iowa and the counties that voted for Obama and Trump, according to a statement. map of visits organized by the monks' register. This cycle, Iowa is not just a place where only one candidate can win the country's first nomination contest – this is also one way in which he can demonstrate his ability to win back white and middle class voters who defected to Trump in 2016 and have played an important role in his election.
According to estimates, at the national level, between 5 and 15% of the voters who chose Trump in 2016 voted for Obama in 2012, not less than 9.2 million voters. These Obama-Trump voters are one of the only voting groups to have had a significant change in their vision of President Trump: in 2016, 85% of them had a "favorable" view from the president – a rate that has fallen to 66%. This year, according to polls conducted by the Democracy Fund's Voter Study Group, is composed of analysts and experts from all walks of life who examine the evolution of the views of voters.
Winning the Iowa caucuses in 2008 put Obama on the Democratic nomination path – and winning the state in the general election was crucial to his arrival at the White House. But since Obama's two wins here, Iowa politics have turned upside down: in 2016, nearly one-third of Iowa's 99 counties gave up after voting twice for Obama to vote for Trump, leading to defeat of the Democratic Hillary Clinton in the state. The Democrats resumed ground in Iowa in the 2018 midterm elections, winning three of the four congressional seats, although it elected a Republican governor.
More than half of Obama-Trump's 31 counties in Iowa continued to vote for Republicans in major races in 2018, while five counties resumed voting for Democrats. Eight counties voted for Democrats in Congress and a Republican for the governor.
The Muscatine girls sell lemonade in front of their homes while a motorcyclist passes by. (Joshua Lott / for the Washington Post)
While Trump travels Tuesday to the West of Iowa to attend an event at a renewable energy facility, then to a private Republican fundraising event in West Des Moines, some of those hoping to replace him attempt to argue their case east along the Mississippi River. .
At the same time, former Congressman Beto O. Rourke of Texas – who launched his bid in March with a tour of Obama-Trump counties along the Mississippi – held a city hall in the US. Clinton County, which Obama had won with 60% of the vote in 2012. and Trump got 48% of the vote in 2016, a year in which the turnout declined. In 2018, voters chose Democrats for the first two polls.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has scheduled four town halls in the east of the state for Tuesday and Wednesday, including two in Obama-Trump counties. Biden has largely escaped opportunities to appear with candidates for the Democratic nomination, preferring to present himself as the direct challenger of Trump and the kind of candidate who could win back voters who do not know which political party best represents them.
A park near Pearl City Station is submerged by the waters after the Mississippi overflow by the rain storms of Muscatine. (Joshua Lott / for the Washington Post)
Some party members argue that trying to communicate with Trump voters is a waste of time, as it may weaken their efforts to inspire, motivate and mobilize dedicated Liberal voters – who are also more likely to vote in the Democratic primary. . However, Democratic leaders in East Iowa warned that candidates should not forget the parliamentary elections as they seek votes in caucuses and primaries.
Kelcey Brackett, chairman of the Muscatine County Democratic Party, noted that his county, like much of Iowa, has a large number of independent voters who refuse to line up on a party. , consider many politicians as corrupt and would prefer an elected leader who is frank and honest than politically correct. Obama won Muscatine County in 2012 with 57% of the vote, and Trump in 2016 with 49%. The participation rate was similar in both years. In November, voters chose outgoing Democrat MP David Loebsack and Republican Governor Kim Reynolds.
Many Obama-Trump voters that Brackett knows have told him that they had chosen Obama and Trump – two presidents who could not be more different – because they hoped that each represented a transformational change.
"I think at least a good deal of them realize that they have to consider another candidate" other than Trump in 2020, he said. "But I think if we just have a Democrat in power, we will miss some of those voters.We need someone at least interesting, someone who does not feast in the crowd." "
Randy Naber, a retired teacher from Muscatine who sits on the school board, said that at the mid-session, in 2018, "it was almost like pulling teeth" to get the Democratic candidate to the governor, Fred Hubbell, to go to the county. I was not surprised when Hubbell lost there. He added that the best thing for presidential candidates to do is to visit the electors and talk to them, and the local Democratic Party has set up a "welcoming committee" that will help any candidate to organize. an event and to recruit a crowd. Nine candidates visited the county this year, including Sanders, O'Rourke and Sens. Cory Booker, from New Jersey, and Kirsten Gillibrand from New York.
Naber has narrowed his list down to four candidates he thinks he can succeed in countries like Muscatine: Biden, Warren, Harris and Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Ind. He adds another candidate he is watching closely: Senator Amy Klobuchar. from Minnesota.
An in-person visit is a way for candidates to try to break Trump's information cycles and insert – or even just name – into Iowans' social media feeds.
A motorcyclist on West 2nd Street in Muscatine. (Joshua Lott / for the Washington Post)
Sitting at Starbucks in Muscatine where his fiancée works, Eric Kortemeyer tried Friday morning to name as many Democrats as possible, but could only propose two: Biden, he wants to know outside of "the shadow of Obama" , and Warren, that he does not know he can be trusted because he believes he has lied about the Native American heritage.
Sanders, 40, added that, pressed by some, he had good ideas, but he was generally too extreme to be elected, and O'Rourke, although Kortemeyer wondered how long the Texan campaign will last. He also heard about Andrew Yang on Facebook and likes the call of entrepreneurs to a universal base salary.
Kortemeyer considers himself a Democrat and has voted twice for Obama. Prior to the 2016 election, he had planned to vote for Clinton and was excited about the idea of having a woman president. But then, he said, he began to learn more about the attack on the US mission in Benghazi and other Clinton critics by people they met on Facebook who claimed to know the truth. 39, former Secretary of State.
Meanwhile, he likes the idea of electing a businessman, although he is alarmed by some of the things said by Trump during his campaign. Kortemeyer says he remembered thinking, "Oh, but damn it, give this guy a chance."
But Kortemeyer does not know if he will vote again for Trump. He disapproved of the President's treatment of migrants at the border and what he saw as an imprudent approach to foreign policy. He thinks a border wall would be a waste of money. But he likes the economy seems in full swing under Trump's leadership.
He also likes the fact that many Democrats want to make health care cheaper and easier to access, while raising the minimum wage – but he's starting to believe some of the things that Trump is saying about Democrats do not care about men of the working class like him.
"Honestly, I do not know what I am anymore. I was a democrat, "said Kortemeyer. "Do I want him to have a second term? I do not know . . . I would vote for a democrat, but they will really have to convince me. "
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
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