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Yellowhammer News has received a new internal voting note from Tommy Tuberville's US Senate campaign, which shows that the former head coach at Auburn University has won 10% since June and is moving up double digits.
The memo summarizes the results of a survey conducted by Moore Information Group, a well-respected national polling firm, from August 11th to 13th. The sample of respondents counted 400 Republican primary voters in 2020 in Alabama. The margin of error for the survey was 5%.
The survey memo details: "The data were weighted to reflect expected participation demographics for the 2020 primary elections."
"Tuberville leads all candidates with 33%, with support for both Congressman Bradley Byrne (17%) and former Chief Justice Roy Moore (15%) in mid-adolescence," says the memo.
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According to the survey, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill was barely 19% behind Moore.
The state representative, Arnold Mooney (R-Indian Springs), is listed at 1%.
Tuberville, at 23%, led the pack in its internal survey conducted by the same firm in June. This month's results showed that Moore was second at 18%, followed by Byrne (16%), Merrill (8%) and Mooney (2%). Moore and Merrill had not yet officially announced their offers at that time.
One of the interesting nuggets highlighted in the memo is that the August survey asked respondents if they were fans of Auburn football programs or the University of Alabama.
Some predicted that Tuberville's past Auberville, given the strong rivalry between programs, could hurt its campaign across the country.
However, he was the first choice of Tide fans in this latest poll, getting 33% of the vote. Moore (17%) was the second most popular candidate for bama fans.
Tuberville had a marked increase in the number of ballots among Auburn supporters. Of those who support the Tigers, 43% said they would vote for him, with Merrill (18%) coming in second.
The memo also revealed some geographical differences, including the obvious reality that Byrne directs in his congressional district, AL-01. Tuberville headed all other congressional districts, with the exception of AL-02, where he was related to Moore.
At 38%, Tuberville had the best results among all applicants, with respondents indicating that immigration was their top priority.
A look at name identification and favorability figures also seemed encouraging for the Tuberville campaign.
While 97% of respondents had heard of Moore, the figures of the former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama are still undervalued – and do not seem to improve. 31% consider Moore favorable, while 56% consider it unfavorable.
Tuberville had the second highest level of name recognition, with a wide margin, at 87%. An impressive 54% of respondents perceived it favorably, compared to 12% unfavorably.
The figures of Byrne and Merrill in this respect were very similar.
Byrne had 56% of names, 31% considered it favorably and 7% unfavorably.
Merrill had 54% of names, 29% considered it favorably and 5% unfavorably.
In a race as contested as this one, it can also be important to see which candidates are popular among the supporters of another candidate. As the primary gets closer, some electors may choose to choose their "second choice" if they feel that the candidate has a better chance of winning – or if their first choice disappoints him.
Tuberville (23%) also led in this category, followed by Byrne (17%), Merrill (16%), Moore (11%) and Mooney (3%).
In a statement, Erik Iverson, chairman and managing partner of the Moore Information Group, said: "Coach Tuberville has grabbed the momentum and reached a double-digit lead in a cluttered primary, and it's not a thin feat."
"Republican Alabama primary voters support Coach, a political underdog who has always defended President Trump forever, against the politicians who defend him. Doug Jones should be very nervous, "he concluded.
You can see the complete voting note here.
Sean Ross is the publisher of Yellowhammer News. You can follow him on Twitter @sean_yhn
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